*Over/Under is supplied by Vegas according to Oddsshark.com*
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE RAVENS – 8.0 wins
Key Additions: RB Mark Ingram, Slot WR Seth Roberts, S Earl Thomas
Key Losses: LB Z’Darius Smith, LB Terrell Suggs, LB C.J. Mosley, S Eric Weddle, QB Joe Flacco, RB Alex Collins
Best Case Scenario: 10 wins, Div. Title, Divisional Round appearance
John Harbaugh has the opportunity to be firmly placed in the upper echelon of head coaches in the NFL with a 2nd consecutive division title in 2019. The division remains wide open, even if many have fallen for a delusional assumption that the Browns have suddenly become Super Bowl contenders from the moves of this off-season. The Ravens overcome their off-season losses and remain among the top of the league in terms of defensive production. Safety Earl Thomas comes back rejuvenated and returns to his ball hawk form as the former Hawk (seems fitting doesn’t it?) flirts with Comeback Player of the Year en route to another All-Pro season. Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram make for a fascinating tandem, combining for 2,000 yards rushing and leading the league as a run team in the process. Baltimore takes advantage of their division rivals reloading and squeeze out enough wins within the division to host a playoff game in the wild-card round. The Purple and Black learn from their mistakes last year and win a grind out, clock controlling game in the playoff opener, but fall short on the road against one of the AFC’s top two teams, ultimately resulting in a fairly successful sophomore campaign for Jackson.
Worst Case Scenario: 6 wins, firing coach Harbaugh
The Ravens struggle out the gate with an inability to move the ball, leaning on the defense to bail them out, to no avail. Jackson fails to make progress as a passer and a lead’s a bottom five offense, with the lack of weapons surrounding the sophomore quarterback. The turnover of talent on the defensive side proves to be too much to overcome, as the new look Ravens fail to create turnovers. Defensive stalwart Earl Thomas suffers his third significant injury in four years, raising serious concern about the future of the NFL’s highest paid safety. The lack of a true core on the roster forces management to look into the start of a rebuild, letting go of the fourth longest tenured coach in John Harbaugh to start the process.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS – 8.5 wins
Key Additions: LB Mark Barron, WR Donte Moncrief, CB Steven Nelson
Key Losses: RB Le’Veon Bell, WR Antonio Brown, TE Jesse James, CB Coty Sensabaugh, Marcus Gilbert
Best Case Scenario: 11 wins, Div. Title, Super Bowl appearance
The Steelers silence all critics, by staying in contention for the AFC crown. Big Ben plays rejuvenated, taking care of the football and has a smooth transition with his fresh set of toys. James Connor thrives in his second year as the all-purpose back, while JuJu Smith-Schuster proves he can handle a legitimate number one wide out workload alongside a plethora of young receiver talent. Led by a top notch pass rushing unit, the Steelers sport a top 10 defense, with an ability to get offenses off the field and win multiple battles of field position throughout the season. The six-time champions not only win the division, but earn a first round bye in the process, leading to a home divisional round game. Pittsburgh is then able to with veterans across the board, are able to go on the road and steal the AFC title game en route to the franchise’s ninth Super Bowl appearance, tying the Patriots for most all-time.
Worst Case Scenario: 6 wins, Big Ben retires
The black and yellow struggle as a team to stay competitive among the AFC’s elite. Ben Roethlisberger continues his gun slinging ways, however stays careless with the football, finishing yet again among the league’s leaders in turnovers, while battling injuries throughout the year. JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Connor take a slight step back with production and a lack of established talent among the remaining skill players keep a top-notch offense middling around the league average in terms of scoring. On the defensive side, the unit fails to build on their solid production during the 2018 season with an inability to get to the quarterback, as well as creating necessary turnovers. After a tumultuous year and failure to remain competitive, Big Ben contemplates retiring, leaving the Steelers with an unclear future, led by unproven quarterback Mason Rudolph.
CLEVELAND BROWNS – 9.0 wins
Key Additions: WR Odell Beckham Jr., DE Olivier Vernon, RB Kareem Hunt, S Morgan Burnett, S Eric Murray, DT Sheldon Richardson
Key Losses: S Jabrill Peppers, G Kevin Zeitler, QB Tyrod Taylor, E.J. Gaines, DE Emmanuel Ogbah
Best Case Scenario: 10 wins, Div. Title, Divisional Round appearance
The Browns use the momentum from the second half of last season to take over the wide open AFC North. The collection of skills players rank among the league’s best, which provides one of the more exciting offenses, led by sophomore quarterback Baker Mayfield. New head coach Freddie Kitchens uses his player-friendly approach to ease in his first year and allowing his guys to thrive. Myles Garrett enjoys his first of many All-Pro seasons alongside running mate Olivier Vernon, leading a top ten defensive unit in the process. The combination of youth and pure talent lead the team to their first winning season since 2007 and first playoff berth since 2002.
Worst Case Scenario: 5 wins, Baker regresses, new acquisitions underwhelm
The Browns start out struggling with a rather difficult schedule. Baker Mayfield finds himself being too careless with the football and struggles to find chemistry with Odell Beckham Jr. After having a rather successful start to the year Nick Chubb begins to struggle as the year goes on while they try to implement former Chief Kareem Hunt into the fold. New acquisitions Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson fail to live up to the hype of becoming a top unit beside Garrett. Head coach Kitchens becomes overwhelmed and proves inept, losing several games by constantly being outcoached. Cleveland becomes one of the most disappointing teams of the year as a result, proving that inexperience and a lack of coaching cannot be overcome.
CINCINNATI BENGALS – 6.0 Wins
Key Additions: G John Miller, CB B.W. Webb
Key Losses: DE Michael Johnson, Vontaze Burfict
Best Case Scenario: 8 wins, HC Zac Taylor secures job
Worst Case Scenario: 3 wins, complete rebuild commences
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON TEXANS – 8.5 Wins
Key Additions: TE Darren Fells, T Matt Kalil, S Tashaun Gipson, CB Bradley Roby
Key Losses: DE Christian Covington, CB Kareem Jackson, S Tyrann Mathieu
Best Case Scenario: 11 wins, Div. Title, AFC Divisional Round appearance
Worst Case Scenario: 6 wins, DeShaun leads league in sacks again, Dead last in passing yards allowed
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS – 9.5 Wins
Key Additions: WR Devin Funchess, Edge Justin Houston
Key Losses: WR Dontrelle Inman, S Mike Mitchell
Best Case Scenario: 12 wins, Div. Title, AFC Championship Appearance,
Worst Case Scenario: 7 wins, Offense takes a step back
TENNESSEE TITANS – 8.5 Wins
Key Additions: WR Adam Humphries, QB Ryan Tannehill, G Rodger Saffold, Edge Cameron Wake
Key Losses: DT Bennie Logan, LB Derrick Morgan
Best Case Scenario: 10 wins, Wild Card appearance, Mariota has career year
Worst Case Scenario: 6 wins, Mariota hurt yet again, Derrick Henry fails to keep starting job
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – 8.0 wins
Key Additions: QB Nick Foles, WR Chris Conley, LB Jake Ryan
Key Losses: QB Blake Bortles, RB T.J. Yeldon, WR Donte Moncrief, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Malik Jackson, S Tashaun Gipson
Best Case Scenario: 10 wins, Divisional Round appearance, Fournette amasses 1600 all-purpose yards
Worst Case Scenario: 6 wins, Foles returns to Rams form, Defense underwhelms, Fournette continues to struggle
AFC EAST
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – 11 wins
Key Additions: DE Michael Bennett, S Terrence Brooks, WR Bruce Ellington, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Key Losses: WR/KR Coradrrelle Patterson, WR Chris Hogan, TE Dwayne Allen, TE Rob Gronkowski, T Trent Brown, DE Trey Flowers, DT Malcom Brown, Eric Rowe
Best Case Scenario: 13 wins, Div. Title, repeat as champions/7th Super Bowl title
Worst Case Scenario: 6 wins, failure to find more weapons, Brady gets injured/retires
MIAMI DOLPHINS – 5.0 wins
Key Additions: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, TE Dwayne Allen, CB Eric Rowe
Key Losses: QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Frank Gore, WR Danny Amendola, T Ja’Wuan James, DE William Hayes, DE Cameron Wake, DE Robert Quinn
Best Case Scenario: 9 wins, young talent shows promise
Worst Case Scenario: 3 wins, Fitzmagic breaks his wand, does not land the top 2020 pick
BUFFALO BILLS – 6.5 wins
Key Additions: WR Cole Beasley, WR John Brown, E.J. Gaines, RB Frank Gore, CB Kevin Johnson, TE Tyler Kroft, C Mitch Morse, WR/KR Andre Roberts
Key Losses: G John Miller
Best Case Scenario: 9 wins, wild card appearance, Allen shows significant improvement
Worst Case Scenario: 4 wins, Allen does not improve, McDermott fired
NEW YORK JETS – 7.0 wins
Key Additions: RB Le’Veon Bell, RB/WR Ty Montgomery, WR Jamison Crowder, G Kelechi Osemele, CB Brian Poole
Key Losses: RB Bilal Powell, RB Isaiah Crowell, WR Jermaine Kearse, CB Morris Claiborne, CB Buster Skrine
Best Case Scenario: 10 wins, Divisional Round appearance, Bell reclaims throne as best RB, Darnold plays above his years
Worst Case Scenario: 6 wins, FAs make little impact, HC Adam Gase fails to provide promise
AFC WEST
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – 10.5 wins
Key Additions: CB Bashaud Breeland, RB Carlos Hyde, S Tyrann Mathieu, DE Alex Okafor, LB Damien Wilson, Emmanuel Ogbah
Key Losses: RB Spencer Ware, WR Kelvin Benjamin, WR Chris Conley, C Mitch Morse, Edge Dee Ford, Edge Justin Houston, CB Steven Nelson, CB Orlando Scandrick
Best Case Scenario: 12 wins, Div. Title, Super Bowl appearance, Mahomes flirts with passing records
Worst Case Scenario: 7 wins, Hill faces significant punishment, Mahomes struggles with sudden lack of weapons, defense worsens
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – 9.5 wins
Key Additions: LB Thomas Davis, QB Tyrod Taylor
Key Losses: WR Tyrell Williams, CB Jason Verrett
Best Case Scenario: 13 wins, Div. Title, first Super Bowl victory
Worst Case Scenario: 8 wins, Rivers shows age, team struggles again with injuries
DENVER BRONCOS – 7.0 wins
Key Additions: QB Joe Flacco, DB Kareem Jackson, T Ja’Wuan James,
Key Losses: QB Case Keenum, C Matt Paradis, DT Domata Peko, LB Shaquil Barrett, LB Shane Ray, CB Bradley Roby, CB Tramaine Brock, LB Brandon Marshall
Best Case Scenario: 10 wins, Wild Card appearance, Flacco thrives in fresh start
Worst Case Scenario: 5 wins, offense finishes in the bottom five, defense fails to create turnovers
OAKLAND RAIDERS – 6.5 wins
Key Additions: WR Antonio Brown, T Trent Brown, LB Vontaze Bufict, RB Isaiah Crowell, WR Ryan Grant, WR Tyrell Williams, S Lamarcus Joyner, LB Brandon Marshall, J.J. Nelson
Key Losses: RB Marshawn Lynch, Martavis Bryant, TE Jared Cook, CB Leon Hall, S Marcus Gilchrist, S Reggie Nelson
Best Case Scenario: 10 wins, Wild Card appearance, Carr has career year, defense improves
Worst Case Scenario: 5 wins, Brown divides the locker room, Gruden struggles to showcase improvement
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001018612/article/2019-nfl-free-agents-by-team
https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-over-under-win-totals
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