By Kamron Selby

THE RETURN OF THE 2019-2020 NBA SEASON

Per NBA Insider Adrian Wojnarowski, the NBA is closing in on a procedure for the return of basketball. A vote will take place on Thursday morning, June 4 at 11:30 CT to make the announcement official. The remainder of the NBA season will take place July 31st-October 12th with a shortened regular season to be played in a neutral site in Orlando, Florida at the Walt Disney World Resort. 22 teams are set to play eight regular season games. 13 teams will be represented from the West, while nine will be from the East. At the end of the regular season, if a team is within four games of the eighth seed, the 9th seed will have a play in tournament with the 8th seed. The 8th seed would only have to win once in single-elimination fashion, while the 9th would have to win twice to advance to the 16 team playoffs. Here is how the current East and West shake out:

WEST STANDINGS

1. LOS ANGELES LAKERS – 49-14 (-)
2. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS – 44-20 (-5.5)
3. DENVER NUGGETS – 43-22 (-7.0)
4. UTAH JAZZ – 41-23 (-8.5)
5. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER – 40-24 (-9.5)
6. HOUSTON ROCKETS – 40-24 (-9.5)
7. DALLAS MAVERICKS – 40-27 (-11.0)
8. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES – 32-33 (-18.0) (-)
9. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS – 29-37 (-21.5) (-3.5 behind 8th)
10. NEW ORLEANS PELICANS – 28-36 (-21.5) (-3.5 behind 8th)
11. SACRAMENTO KINGS – 28-36 (-21.5) (-3.5 behind 8th)
12. SAN ANTONIO SPURS – 27-36 (-22.0) (-4.0 behind 8th)
13. PHOENIX SUNS – 26-39 (-24.0) (-6.0 behind 8th)

EAST STANDINGS

1. MILWAUKEE BUCKS – 53-12 (-)
2. TORONTO RAPTORS – 46-18 (-6.5)
3. BOSTON CELTICS – 43-21 (-9.5)
4. MIAMI HEAT – 41-24 (-12.0)
5. INDIANA PACERS – 39-26 (-14.0)
6. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS – 39-26 (-14.0)
7. BROOKLYN NETS – 30-34 (-22.5)
8. ORLANDO MAGIC – 30-35 (-23.0) (-)
9. WASHINGTON WIZARDS – 24-40 (-28.5) (-5.5 behind 8th)

Mathematically in the West, the first seven seeds have clinched the playoffs (but they can still switch seeding) so the final seed will be between Memphis, Portland, New Orleans, Sacramento, San Antonio, and Phoenix. 

In terms of the Spurs, they are currently .5 a game behind the 9th seed (Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Kings all tied) and would have to finish one game better than all three teams above while also finishing with at least an equal record with the Grizzlies to participate in the play-in tournament. While other teams, can tie for the 9th seed (tiebreaker rules have yet to be announced), the Spurs cannot mathematically tie with any team other than the Suns, due to playing fewer games than the other contenders at the time of the stoppage. 

Should the Spurs make the playoffs, they will in all likelihood match up against the #1 seed Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. This would be the 13th time the two teams have met in the playoffs and first meeting since the 2013 first round (SA won series 4-0). The Spurs and Lakers have met each other an NBA high seven times in the post-season since the 1999 lockout-shortened season, when the San Antonio Spurs went on to win the franchise’s first NBA championship. During the 2019-2020 regular season, the Lakers bested the Spurs in all three meetings (103-96, 114-104, 129-102).

Making the playoffs would break a tie with the Philadelphia 76ers (formerly Syracuse Nationals) for longest playoff streak in NBA history at 23 consecutive season (since 1998; Tim Duncan’s rookie year).

A QUICK LOOK AT THE NBA LOTTERY AND DRAFT

As it currently stands, the odds for the top eight spots in the lottery will be locked, with 9-14 being determined after the adjusted regular season concludes. 1-8 are as followed:

1. Golden State Warriors
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Detroit Pistons
6. New York Knicks
7. Chicago Bulls
8. Charlotte Hornets

The NBA Lottery will transpire in August after the conclusion of the regular season. The NBA Draft will take place in late October on an undetermined date. In terms of the lottery, the Spurs can finish as high as 17th (if they make the playoffs), but as low as 9th (most likely 10th). This will give them as high as a four percent chance to have a top four pick in the upcoming draft. This is a much weaker class and very guard heavy, so even landing in the top 10 would essential to find a role player that can contribute relatively early. At the very least, it can be a strong trade asset for the team, to couple with a Derrick White/Lonnie Walker to land a quality veteran wing that can step in and contribute right away. 

From a historical perspective, five teams in the last 26 years have won the lottery for the #1 pick. Last year, the Pelicans (7th best odds) won the first pick, the Grizzlies (8th best odds) won the 2nd pick, while the Lakers (11th best odds) wound up with the 4th pick (later traded to Atlanta) 

THE ALTERED NBA OFF-SEASON

The NBA off-season will likely be one without the key big name free agents like we saw last year with the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler, and Kemba Walker.

Players with a player option above $15 million are as followed:

1. Gordon Hayward (BOS) – ($31.96 million)
2. DeMar DeRozan (SAS) – ($27.8 million)
3. Otto Porter Jr. (CHI) – ($26.63 million)
4. Andre Drummond (CLE) – ($25.43 million)
5. Anthony Davis (LAL) – ($25.43 million)
6. Nicholas Batum (CHA) – ($24.0 million)
7. Tim Hardaway Jr. (DAL) – ($17.74 millon)
8. Evan Fournier (ORL) – ($17.0 million)

It is likely only Andre Drummond and Anthony Davis will opt-out to become unrestricted free agents, while the latter should be locked up long-term by the Los Angeles Lakers.

Notable unrestricted free agents are as followed:

1. PF Danilo Gallinari (OKC)
2. G Fred VanVleet (TOR)
3. SG Joe Harris (BKN)
4. PF Montrezl Harrell (LAC)
5. F Marcus Morris (LAC)
6. C Hassan Whiteside (POR)
7. PG Goran Dragic (MIA)
8. PF Serge Ibaka (TOR)
9. PF Paul Millsap (DEN)
10. F Davis Bertans (WAS)

While the 2020 Free Agency Class has solid role players, there is no bonafide NBA star among this year’s class. Teams with potential cap space may limit their spending in order to be in the sweepstakes for a loaded free agency class that could include LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Bradley Beal, C.J. McCollum, among others.

Here are the Spurs current potential free agents this Off-Season:

1. DeMar DeRozan (player option: $27.8 million)
2. Jakob Poeltl (Restricted Free Agent: $5.09 million qualifying offer)
3. Bryn Forbes (UFA)
4. Marco Belinelli (UFA)

The Off-Season for the Spurs should be a relatively quiet one, unless DeMar DeRozan opts out of his player option, which will be unlikely seeing as though there are currently five teams (Hawks, Knicks, Pistons, Hornets, Heat) projected to be under the cap this off-season.

The Spurs will also suffer a dead cap hit of $6.17 million during the 2020-2021 NBA season after waiving DeMarre Carroll in February.

The Spurs are projected to be over the cap following an opt-in by DeRozan leaving them with just the Mid-Level Exception (proj. $9.755 million) to work with.

The Spurs would be left with 12 players on the roster for the 2020-2021 season, or 13 should RFA Jakob Poeltl be brought back via a new deal or qualifying offer. Here is how the roster would look:

SF DeMar DeRozan ($27.8 million)

PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge ($24 million)

F Rudy Gay ($14.5 million)

PG DeJounte Murray ($14.29 million)

G Patty Mills ($13.29 million)

F/C Trey Lyles ($5.5 million; partially guaranteed)

G Derrick White ($3.52 million)

G Lonnie Walker IV ($2.89 million)

PF Luka Samanic ($2.82 million)

G/F Keldon Johnson ($2.05 million)

F Chimezie Metu ($1.66 million; non-guaranteed)

C Jakob Poeltl (pending new deal/ $5.09 million qualifying offer)

2020 First Round Pick (TBD salary)

*As of now, the Spurs have only four players (Murray, Walker, Samanic, and Johnson under contract following the 2020-2021 season.*

*All numbers provided by Spotrac*