Week 1 NFL Picks

Last Week: —                    Overall Record: 1-0          

*Spread is in parentheses. Ex: If a team is (-3), they are favored by 3 points. Generally, home teams have a three point advantage. *

*My ‘Lock’ pick of the week will be the spread prediction I am most confident in*

Week 1 NFL Injury Report

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) – Thursday, 7:20pm

Prediction: KC over Hou 38-20

Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson will forever be intertwined. Apart from both being quarterbacks that were traded up for by playoff teams back in the 2017 draft (Insert Chicago Bears jab here), the two enter the 2020 season with respective extensions, becoming the two highest annually paid quarterbacks in the NFL for the next half decade. This will be the third meeting between the two teams in 11 months, all of which take place in Kansas City. The first two meetings were split, however the most recent was a playoff game that saw a massive swing, scoring 42 answered after a first quarter scare that saw Houston up 24-0. Bill O’Brien will be under pressure to perform this year after dealing DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona. Since Andy Reid joined the Chiefs in 2013, they have gotten off to a hot start in openers. They have won six of seven while scoring 31.14 PPG in that span, including 40 PPG over their last three. Look for some fireworks and the Chiefs pulling away in the second half. The Texans will need Deshaun to make some magic for it to stay close.

Final: KC 34 – HOU 20

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) @ New England Patriots – Sunday, 12:00pm

Prediction: NE over Mia 24-20

The last regular season game these two teams played saw the same matchup with an improbable comeback by the Dolphins with less than a minute left. The upset resulted in New England losing a first-round bye, and subsequently falling to the Titans in the Wild Card round. Basically, the Dolphins are the reason Tom Brady left. All joking aside, Cam Newton will be one of the most anticipated players to watch this weekend. While he missed all but two games last season, Cam has lost eight straight starts, with his last win dates all the way back to November 4th, 2018, coincidentally against the quarterback he is facing this weekend, when Fitzpatrick was a member of the Buccaneers. New England will look very different and one must wonder if they have the capability to be competitive early on. Belichick disciple Brian Flores will lead a Miami team that would like to show massive improvement from 2019’s rough year. Will this be the future overtaking the past, or will we see more of the same? My gut to go with the latter, for now.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) – Sunday, 12:00pm

Prediction: Bal over Cle 33-21

Baltimore rolls into their season opener looking to blow off steam following the shocking upset by the Titans in the 2020 Divisional Round. Though logic would state a comfortable win to boost their confidence back to what it was in 2019, the Browns may not roll over easily. The massively hyped Browns fell flat on their face in 2019, finishing a dismal 6-10, including a loss in the season finale against the 1-14 Bengals. One of those six wins came in Baltimore in one of the biggest upsets of the season last September. The Browns, on the other hand, have struggled mightily in season openers for a long time now. Since 1999, Cleveland is 1-19-1 in the opening game, with their last win coming in 2004 against Baltimore. Can history repeat itself to break this chain of misfortune? It’s very unlikely. But a competitive game could very well be on the horizon. My feeling is Baltimore pulls away late, but Cleveland shows off a competitive fervor to will persist throughout 2020.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5) – Sunday, 12:00pm

Prediction: Buf over NYJ 30-16

Josh Allen and the Bills look to start their quest for their first division title since 1995 with a repeat of last year’s season opener. That game was a competitive 17-16 finish between two teams that were wildly similar in terms of talent. Fast forward 370 days, and that gap has significantly risen. The Bills have added depth to both sides of the ball, while the Jets will be sans their best two defensive players, as well as their top receiver after their respective moves. The coaching battle is not close either. A dysfunctional organization beginning the year on the road against a playoff team does not bode well for a competitive contest. The only man that will keep this game is Sam Darnold, who fended off a slow start to lead the Jets to a 6-2 record in the second half of the 2019 season.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Carolina Panthers (+3) – Sunday, 12:00pm

Prediction: LV over CAR 27-26

One of the toughest games of the week to call will be the Raiders representing a new city traveling across the country to take on the new look Panthers. Las Vegas has struggled on east coast matchups in Gruden’s second stint with the team, going 0-4 in the last two years with an average margin of defeat of 15 points. This could very well be the week to right the ship facing a Panthers team looking to bring a system to the fold led by former Baylor Head Coach Matt Rhule. Carolina’s defensive unit has a lot of raw potential, but will be tested early on by second year running back Josh Jacobs, who is looking for a breakout year after going over the 100 all-purpose yard mark in eight of his final 10 games last year before missing the final two weeks with injury. I expect a tight contest with big games from both McCaffrey and Jacobs, but Raiders to squeak one out before a rough seven game stretch that follows.

Seattle Seahawks (-2) @ Atlanta Falcons – Sunday, 12:00pm

Prediction: Sea over Atl 31-27

A battle of the birds opens the year with two high-flying offenses ready to do battle. The Falcons possess a enticing 1-2 punch of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, who are both capable of having excellent years this season, the likes of which fellow division rivals Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were able to dissect defenses last year. Todd Gurley debuts repping familiar colors from his alma mater in an attempt to rejuvenate his career. How much work he will get initially behind an improved offensive line remains to be seen. This will be the 7th meeting between Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan, the first six of which were split 3-3. On paper this is not a great matchup for the Seahawks, but my gut tells me they will be able to prevail in exciting fashion.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Football Team (+5.5) – Sunday, 12:00pm

Prediction: Phi over Was 20-17

The NFC East rivals open their respective years against each other for the second year in a row. Philadelphia has controlled the series the last three years, winning six straight games. But with a banged-up offense travelling to face a suddenly rising defensive front in Washington, could that combination put the Eagles on upset alert? It certainly bringing a more competitive feel to a game, but with Washington’s below average offense, second-year quarterback Dwayne Haskins will be asked show immediate improvement following a subpar rookie year in limited action. The lack of help outside of rookie surprise Terry McLaurin may not be enough to put them over the top, but I expect a solid game plan by Ron Rivera to overcome recent turmoil surrounding the franchise. A valiant effort will put other teams on notice that the team with an interim name will not be doormats in 2020.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-3) – Sunday, 12:00pm

Prediction: Det over Chi 24-17

**Indianapolis Colts (-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday, 12:00pm**

Prediction: Ind over Jac 38-17

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings – Sunday, 12:00pm

Prediction: GB over Min 31-24

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 3:05pm

Prediction: LAC over Cin 26-13

Arizona Cardinals (+8) @ San Francisco 49ers – Sunday, 3:25pm

Prediction: SF over Ari 30-27 OT

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints – Sunday, 3:25pm

Prediction: TB over NO 23-20

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams (+3) – Sunday, 7:20pm

Prediction: LAR over Dal 27-23

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ New York Giants – Monday, 6:10pm

Prediction: Pit over NYG 31-10

Tennessee Titans (-2) @ Denver Broncos – Monday, 9:20pm

Prediction: Ten over Den 27-19


Week 1ESPN (Wick)Bleacher ReportRosenthal (NFL.com)KamCBSSports (Eisenberg)
Total Record (Games Behind)
This Week’s Record0-11-01-01-01-0
Texans @ Chiefs (TNF)HOUKCKCKCKC
Dolphins @ PatriotsNENENENENE
Browns @ RavensBALBALBALBALBAL
Jets @ BillsBUFBUFBUFBUFBUF
Raiders @ PanthersLVLVLVLVLV
Seahawks @ FalconsSEASEAATLSEAATL
Eagles @ WashingtonPHIPHIPHIPHIPHI
Bears @ LionsDETDETMINDETDET
Colts @ JaguarsINDINDINDINDIND
Packers @ VikingsGBGBMINGBMIN
Chargers @ BengalsLACLACCINLACLAC
Cardinals @ 49ersSFSFSFSFSF
Buccaneers @ SaintsNONONOTBNO
Cowboys @ Rams (SNF)DALDALLARLARLAR
Steelers @ Giants (MNF)PITPITPITPITPIT
Titans @ Broncos (MNF)DENDENTENTENTEN

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