QB
| K. Murray | SEA (32nd) | $7,100 |
Even with the switch to SNF, Murray remains an option for main contests, which becomes very intriguing considering his price has not adjusted enough for the matchup as well as his abilities on the ground. SEA has allowed 28.48 FPPG to QBs (31st) this season, which comes close to the 28.08 mark Murray averages, which ties for third among all QBs. While he has only thrown for 300 yards one time, Kyler leads his position in rush attempts (51), rush yards (370), and rush TDs (6). He has established himself as the go to “RB” in the red zone, which gives him one of the safest floors week in and week out. His success will be predicated on how Hopkins responds with the ankle injury he is dealing with. Though he finished with 27.92 FPTS last week against Dallas, nearly 75% of his passing yardage came on a deep ball to Kirk (who he nearly overthrew) and a Hopkins catch and run. If D-Hop is limited in any fashion, it will make me hesitant of investing in the QB due to his limitations of stretching the field.
| M. Ryan | DET (6th) | $6,700 |
After an 0-5 start, Matt Ryan put questions of his abilities to rest against MIN, throwing for 371 yards and four scores, good for QB2 last week. DET has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards (1170) and has failed to allow a QB to throw for over 270 yards this season, but they have yet to play a receiving corps like Ridley and Julio. Ryan’s 244 pass attempts rank second NFL and while he had a rough three game stretch between Week 3-5, he has finished as a top eight QB in his other three games in plus matchups. This game will hit the over, which will result in multiple opportunities for Ryan to find the end zone. He should be a safe option to hit at least 22 FPTS, but you may be able to find production similar to that with cheaper salaries.
| M. Stafford | ATL (28th) | $6,500 |
Stafford is in a spot to have a season-best performance this week going against a defense that has allowed the most passing yards (2012), passing TDs (18), and highest quarterback rating (114.1). He has yet to throw for 300 receiving yards, but he could have the opportunity to do so in a high scoring game this weekend against ATL, who has allowed at least 313 pass yards in each game this season, including four occasions playing against a top four fantasy quarterback for the week. I personally trust his ceiling more than Matt Ryan, who is $200 more expensive, but opens up even more room with a Golladay stack ($600 saved minimum with Stafford/Golladay over Ryan/Julio). With plenty of mid-tier options a WR, you will have an opportunity to afford WRs on both sides.
| J. Burrow | CLE (15th) | $5,500 |
Burrow is the guy I am highly invested this weekend. In a rematch against CLE, where he last had a season-high 29.54 FPTS, he will look produce similar numbers after back-to-back games without a passing touchdown. He has thrown for 300 yards in four of his last five games, and without Mixon this weekend, I expect more of the same. He may not finish as a top five fantasy QB this weekend, but he will not need to at this salary. Spending down here will open up opportunities to afford a few quality WRs, while still managing to afford a guy like Kamara as your top RB. If you are able to afford the likes of Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford, they may provide a safer option this weekend, but an investment in a CIN stack may be too intriguing to pass up in my eyes.
RB
| A. Kamara | CAR (32nd) | $7,900 |
Kamara finds himself priced in the $7k’s for the first time since Week 1 coming off a bye and has a pretty juicy matchup on the horizon. CAR has been one of the worst against RB’s this year, averaging 33.45 FPTS to RBs (4th-most), and though they have forced ‘bust’ titles to Kenyan Drake and David Montgomery in recent weeks, those are two teams that have inconsistent usage with their RBs. Kamara’s usage has remained consistent, though. He has had 19 touches in each of his last four games and at least 109 all-purpose yards in each game. CAR has allowed the most receptions to RBs this year (47), so I expect them to continue to struggle in that area this week. Even if Thomas returns (which is no longer a certainty after injuring his hamstring in practice this week), I do not believe his workload will be affect much. The only concern is if Latavius Murray eats into Kamara’s goaline work, like in a similar matchup vs DET in Week 4, where he scored two TDs. It is hard to fathom fading in any lineups at this price.
| A. Jones | HOU (27th) | $7,200 |
Jones will look to rebound this week in a matchup against HOU, who has allowed the third-most FPTS to RBs (33.67), most rush yards (1067), most YPC (5.4), and are coming off a game in which they allowed 264 all-purpose yards to Derrick Henry. Jones is coming off a disappointing performance against TB, where he averaged just 3.1 yards per touch, but that was largely due to game script after trailing multiple scores for the majority of the game. The $400 dip in price was surprising to say the least, considering the matchup. I expect GB to reestablish the run game in a very winnable game on the road. A multi-TD with 100+ yards is a distinct possiblity in my eyes, a type of game you might not want to miss out on.
NOTE: Aaron Jones popped up late on the injury report on Friday. If he cannot go, Jamaal Williams ($4000) becomes a must play in your lineups.
| K. Hunt | CIN (15th) | $6,800 |
Hunt was one of the easier fade options last week largely due to the matchup, and following a down game, he becomes one of the easier investment options against CIN. In the last five games, CIN has allowed five RBs to surpass 105 all-purpose yards, two of which were when they last played CLE, where they allowed over 24 FPTS to both Chubb and Hunt. Now with Chubb out of the picture, Hunt will be in an ideal spot to have a top five fantasy day at his position if he can get a 20+ touch day. Two weeks prior, against IND with a top five defense, Hunt was on the field for 54 snaps (T-4th) and out-touched D’Ernest Johnson 23-9. I expect a game script to reflect similarly with the IND game, so he should be worthly of consideration for your lineups. I just am uncertain that he has a ceiling like Aaron Jones, who is just $400 more.
| J. Conner | TEN (22nd) | $6,700 |
Conner has had a strong start to the year and currently ranks as RB9 with 18.09 FPPG. He has rushed for 100 yards in three of his last four games while scoring a TD in every game since Week 2. TEN ranks 20th against RBs (25.26 FPPG), though they have not allowed just 17.35 FPTS to the position in their last two games. TEN has the looks of a hit-or-miss team defending the run, and if PIT can get it going early, there is little reason to believe Conner cannot hit the 20 point mark for the fourth time. Though they have looked inconsistent at times against the run, TEN has the second-best TD% with runs inside the five yard line (20%) and just 1.19 yards before contact (4th), so I would not consider Conner’s floor nearly as high as those ranked above him.
| J. Jackson | JAX (26th) | $4,900 |
Jackson made the most of his opportunity in LAC’s first game without Austin Ekeler before the bye, with 94 yards on 20 touches. He also happened to out snap Joshua Kelley 42-25, and was the feature back in the two minute offense. From the looks of it, LAC will likely look to ride the hot hand, which raises plenty of risk, but a ton of reward for just $4900. JAX has allowed the fifth-most FPTS to RBs (31.68) and have surrendered at least 200 all-purpose yards and three scores to RBs in two of the last three games. I do not expect a 100 yard bonus here, but if he is able to get a similar stat line to what Boston Scott returned Thursday night (92 yards, 3 rec, TD – 18.2 FPTS), he will hit great value for a RB under $5k. The knee injury designation does not concern me, however if it worsens or his status becomes unclear, that gives me more confidence in Kelley, who is just $200 higher and easy to squeeze in if you are going in this direction.
| L. Murray | CAR (32nd) | $4,800 |
Coming off a bye, NO expected to get their receiving corps back in tact, but with Thomas injuring his hamstring in practice and Sanders being ruled out with COVID, I believe one of the biggest beneficieres, believe it or not, is Latavius Murray. He has received at least 10 touches in four of NO’s first five games, the lone exception being against LV, where they were trailing for the majority of the 2nd half. Kamara will become the number one option as a receiver this week with NO short handed, which will open up more opportunities for Murray to handle a sizeable workload as a rusher. Do not be surprised if Murray hits the 15 touch makr in similar fashion to Detroit in Week 4. If he can combine that with a goal line carry or two, he will hit 3x his salary.
| J. McKissic | DAL (4th) | $4,600 |
McKissic isn’t a sexy play, but one that could provide solid value against a DAL defense that has allowed at least 16.5 FPTS to starting RBs in three straight games, including over 235 rush yards in two of their last three. McKissic has had the steadiest role in the WAS backfield this season averaging 33 snaps per game and has outsnapped Antonio Gibson by 26 in their last four games. DAL ranks 32nd in time of possession on the road (25:54) this season, which makes me believe WAS will have an opportunity to keep moving the chains. His upside as a pass catcher (23 receptions – T-5th) makes him a viable option this week at this price. I would give McKissic the slight edge over Gibson, especially with the $400 discount, but my lone concern will be his chances of reaching the end zone.
| G. Bernard | CLE (23rd) | $4,500 |
Bernard becomes a very intriguing sleeper with Mixon officially sidelined this week. Last time Bernard filled in for an injured Mixon (2018 – Week 3-4), he put up an impressive 45.2 FPTS on 36 touches in those two starts, including nine receptions. Of course, that was two years ago with a better offensive line, however, that shows the type of workload he is capable of handling. Personally, it is assume Bernard can step in and put up top 12 RB numbers, especially considering Mixon was held to just 12.6 FPTS by CLE in Week 2. His value will be giving me further confidence that Joe Burrow will throw the ball more this weekend. If he can get 5-6 receptions, he will be a valuable punt play that will allow you to open up your budget to spend up elsewhere.
| J. Williams | HOU (27th) | $4,000 |
Williams becomes the most intriguing sleeper this week if Aaron Jones (calf) happens to miss this weekend. His $4000 minimum price does not come close to the potential workload he will receive against a HOU defense that has been horrible against RBs this season. Williams has proven to be a capable dual threat back over the last few years as a replacement for Jones in the last few years. Not including a season finale game against DET in 2018, Williams has started six games in place of Jones and has averaged 16.62 FPTS on 21.17 touches. You cannot fade someone with the potential of 20 touches, especially in a matchup like this.
| D. Hopkins | SEA (32nd) | $8,200 |
Hard to not consider Hopkins, who leads the NFL in receptions (47) and receiving yards (601), going up against a SEA defense that has allowed an insane 64.2 FPPG to WRs (15 FPTS higher than 2nd). DHop was a big disappointment in primetime contests against DAL last week with just two catches on eight targets, leading to his worst fantasy outing of 2020. He has missed most of practice this week with an ankle injury, which raises concerns on a short week. Coming in as the most expensive skill player this week, it will restrict your budget, especially with the rostering of Kamara, so it might be better for your overall lineup to spend down on some just-as-juicy matchups.
| D. Adams | HOU (21st) | $7,900 |
Adams returned last week to put up a so-so 6-61 stat line on 10 targets in his first game back from injury. I believe he can have a rebound performance this week in a matchup against HOU, who has allowed the eight-most FPTS to WRs (40.95 FPPG). They have also allowed nine receiving TDs to WRs this season (T-30th). HOU’s offense has been much improved in recent weeks, which makes me believe there will be plenty of points in this game. If Aaron Jones is unable to go, that could lead to Rodgers forcing the ball to the wideout 12-15 times. That kind of volume could result in a near 30 FPT outing, which will go a long ways in your lineup. I would place him slightly ahead of Hopkins.
| C. Ridley | DET (26th) | $7,300 |
The choice between Ridley and Jones could essentially come down to preference. Both have been top 10 WRs this season, with each having just under six catches per game for 15 YPC. Ridley has been the more consistent WR and has been injury-free, but Julio’s big play ability cannot be ignored, especially after his two 2 TD outing last week (36.7 FPTS). DET has struggled all season and have allowed a receiver to score at least 20 FPTS in three straight games. According to PFF, Ridley and Jones have the second and fifth best matchups this week respectively. This will be a shootout, and I expect both WRs to have very productive days. With Desmond Trufant set to miss this week, the ATL receivers should feast.
| K. Golladay | ATL (30th) | $6,700 |
Golladay could be the top play of the week against ATL this Sunday. He has been steady in three games this year, scoring at least 16 FPTS in each game and has caught 67% of his targets. Last week he had the potential to punch in two additional touchdowns had it not been for a PI that set up a goal line run and a slant route that he was stopped one yard short. ATL has allowed the most receiving yards (2071), most passing TDs (18), and most pass plays over 20 yards (29). PFF has given him the best matchup this Sunday against Kendall Sheffield and the Falcons, who have allowed five WRs to have at least 100 yards in their last five games. It is very realistic he can reach 4x his value and be a top 3 WR this week. He is a must start in my eyes.
| K. Allen | JAX (16th) | $6,200 |
It is strange seeing Allen this cheap when you take in to consideration his target share since Justin Herbert took over. Between weeks 2-5, Allen had 30 receptions (T-2nd) on 42 targets (T-2nd) and that does not take into account that he only was able to play nine minutes after he was injured on his touchdown reception against NO. Coming off a bye, Allen should return to his typical 10-12 target game, which puts him as one of the safest options on the second-tier of wideouts. JAX in their last three games have allowed four WRs to exceed 15 FPTS. PFF gives Allen the fourth-best matchup this weekend against a secondary that ranks 30th in the NFL. I am unsure how long this game will stay competitive, but Allen should be a big part of the offense this weekend.
| T. McLaurin | DAL (31st) | $5,800 |
McLaurin should be in store for a big day this Sunday with DAL coming to town. DAL’s defense has been horrid all year, allowing 10 players to exceed at least 19 FPTS, and have allowed 11 receiving TDs to WRs (31st). McLaurin showed last week that he is still the go-to guy after receiving 12 targets with new starting QB Kyle Allen. He currently sits at just WR23 this year, but that is largely due to not finding the end zone in his last four games and facing high quality corners such as Darius Slay, Denzel Ward, Marlon Humphrey, Jalen Ramsey, and James Bradberry, who are all Pro Bowl-caliber cornerbacks. Last time he faced a suspect secondary, he want off on a 7-125-1 (28.5 FPTS) outing. I expect similar production this week, potentially flirting with 30 FPTS.
| T. Boyd | CLE (27th) | $5,400 |
It is mind boggling a receiver currently in the top 15 in targets, receptions, and receiving yards has the 26th highest salary among WRs in a plus matchup. Burrow comes into Week 7 with the most pass attempts in the NFL (246), while CLE has allowed the third-most completions (156). Couple that with an inactive Joe Mixon and you have a rookie QB that will look to get the ball out quickly and to his most reliable receiver, which has been Boyd. His impressive 79% catch rate ranks second only behind DeAndre Hopkins with those that have receiver at least eight targets per game. Last time these two teams matched up in Week 2, Boyd put together a respectable 7-74-1 stat line while Burrow had an absurd 61 pass attempts. I think the volume could be there for multiple CIN WRs to have solid fantasy days, and the discount means it will not take much to return value.
| D. Samuel | NE (23rd) | $5,000 |
Samuel has returned from his foot injury and resumed his normal role. He is just one of five receivers to play at least 55 snaps over the last two games. Last week he caught all six of his targets, and reached the end zone for the first time this year, resulting in a 18 FPT outing. NE has allowed the fewest completions (94) and second-fewest receiving yards (1099), but Samuel is not used as a typical WR. His workload largely comes from gadget plays in short yardage to allow him to work in space. The tough matchup will limit his ceiling, but keying on Kittle could open up space for Samuel to produce. In other matchups against elite TEs, NE managed to hold Travis Kelce and Darren Waller to three catches or fewer, which benefited Hunter Renfrow (6-84-1) and Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman (8-91-2). Both teams need this game, which means that Kyle Shanahan must pull out all the stops to find ways to beat a defense that did not allow a touchdown last week.
| A. Green | CLE (27th) | $4,300 |
I had Green as a sleeper last week after falling below $4k and he rebounded with clearly his best game of the year with a 17.6 FPT game in a rather tough matchup. He ranks 22nd among receivers in targets per game (7.5), but he and Burrow have generally struggled to get on the same page, completing just 50% of their targets this season and have yet to connect for a TD. Last game against Green struggled against Denzel Ward with just three catches on 13 targets. I expect a better outing this time around, and with the kind of volume that might come from a pass happy CIN team, I wouldn’t be surprised if he cracked 15 FPTS for the second consecutive week.
| D. Johnson | TEN (28th) | $4,200 |
Johnson returns to the lineup at a significant discount following a couple of weeks where he was dealing with separate injuries. The emergence of Chase Claypool in recent weeks may have clouded people’s memory of the type of volume Johnson received the first two weeks of the season, where he had 23 targets (T-2nd). Of course now that Claypool has become a point of emphasis for defenses, and Smith-Schuster skeptically has not been involved nearly enough, that leaves the door open for Johnson to continue to be a factor this weekend. His workload may not approach what we saw at the beginning of the year, but 15 FPTS can be very realistic against a defense that has allowed 16.4 receptions per game (31st) to WRs this season.
| D. Robinson | DEN (19th) | $3,400 |
Many thought the absence of Sammy Watkins would result in a larger workload for Mecole Hardman, but it actually turned out to be the veteran Robinson who made the most of his opportunity in a bad weather game against BUF, catching five of six targets for a team-high 69 yards. In Week 6, Robinson was fourth in the NFL in snaps (69) and has outsnapped Hardman in the last two weeks 119-80. Getting only 10 targets with that amount of playing time is slightly concerning, but you can’t find a better option this cheap that can return significant value. DEN has faired well against the pass this season, but allowed at least 10.5 FPTS to 10 WRs in their first four games. He is behind Hill, Kelce, CEH, and Bell in terms of talent, but could end up sneaking behind the due to the defense’s attention being elsewhere.
| T. Kelce | DEN (14th) | $6,300 |
Kelce comes into this weekend’s matchup leading all TEs in receptions (37), receiving yards (470), and TDs (5). He has played historically well against DEN, averaging an absurd 105.29 yards (23.67 FPTS) in their last seven matchups. Getting Kelce at just $6300 seems like a significant discount. It is hard to gauge DEN’s success against TEs (12.48 FPTS – 18th) considering the only top 10 fantasy TE they have faced this season was Jonnu Smith back in their season opener, where they allowed 13.6 FPTS, which tied for the eighth-most allowed to the position that week. Of course there generally needs to be sacrifices to spend this high at TE, but its a relatively modest price for a potential 20 FPT return.
| R. Tonyan | HOU (27th) | $4,600 |
Tonyan enjoyed a pair of breakout games in the absence of Davante Adams, but the return of the Pro Bowler, as well as a turned ankle ultimately made him a bust last week. He has been limited all week at practice, but enters the weekend in a solid matchup against HOU, who just allowed a 8-113-1 stat line to backup TE Anthony Firkser. They have also allowed the second-highest passer rating (111.5), which bodes well for a team looking to rebound offensively after being shut out the final three quarters against TB. Even if Aaron Jones, is limited or even out, I expect the Packers to put up 30+ points, and with a few horses down, Rodgers may turn to the TE that has caught 89% (16-18) of his targets this season.
| D. Schultz | WAS (32nd) | $3,900 |
Believe it or not, Schultz has been a solid replacement for Blake Jarwin up to this point, ranking among the top five TEs in receptions (22), targets (32), and receiving yards (249), though the majority of this production came with Dak Prescott at the helm. In 5 1/2 quarters since he went down, he has only caught four passes and was fifth on the team in targets in last week’s blowout loss. WAS has allowed the fifth-most FPTS to TEs (17.27), including five TDs. With DAL short handed and struggling to protect Dalton, I expect them to adjust by drawing up quick passes, which could result in more looks for Schultz. Even if those opportunities persist, it is hard to trust considering he will be the fifth option on offense week-to-week, which limits his ceiling. In a weekend with several tough TE matchups, this could be a safe direction to go in considering the volume of passing DAL will have, but it is not one I have a whole lot of confidence in.
Advice: Choose a stack with either DET, CIN, or ATL to build your lineup around. Kamara should be in store for a big day, so he will be a lock in my lineups. WAS D/ST is probably the strongest option for cheap ($2500). Keep an eye on the Aaron Jones injury. If he is ruled out, Williams becomes the strongest sleeper by far.
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