Teams without first round picks:
Houston Texans (Laremy Tunsil trade), Seattle Seahawks (Jamal Adams trade), Los Angeles Rams (Jalen Ramsey trade), Kansas City Chiefs (Orlando Brown Jr. trade)
*MT represents a mock trade*
NFL.com Prospect Grading System:
8.0 – The perfect prospect
7.3-7.5 – Perennial All-Pro
7.0-7.1 – Pro Bowl talent
6.7-6.8 – Year 1 quality starter
6.5 – Boom or bust prospect
6.3-6.4 – Will be starter within first two seasons
6.1-6.2 – Good backup who could become starter
6.0 – Developmental traits-based prospect
5.8-5.9 – Backup/special-teamer
5.5-5.6 – Chance to make end of roster or practice squad
5.4 – Priority free agent
5.0-5.1 – Chance to be in an NFL training camp
1 Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Trevor Lawrence
School: Clemson | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 7.40
2020 Stats: 10 games, 3,153 passing yards, 24 TDs, 5 INTs, Comp. Pct: 69.2%, 203 Ru. Yards, 8 Ru. TDs, 84.0 QBR (8th)
Let’s not act like we expected something different here. This pick has been penciled in since Jan. 7, 2019 following the 44-16 thrashing of Alabama in the National Championship Game. The 21-year-old checks all boxes in terms of the ideal franchise quarterback. He has size (6’6; 220 lbs). He is athletic. He is durable. He has stayed out of trouble. He has a resume filled with big games played in. What more can you ask for? Those in recent weeks down playing his abilities or potential as an impact starter for years to come should be ignored wholeheartedly. The only concern in terms of Lawerence’s future will be if an organization who has posted the NFL’s worst win percentage since 2010 (30.2%; 54-125) can continue to grow and place the proper pieces around him to succeed long term. Don’t expect the Clemson Tiger to have the immediate success the likes of Andrew Luck in 2012, but landing the best player in a loaded class, as well as hitting on their other high selections, should bring a strong amount of optimism to the organization.
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2 New York Jets – QB Zach Wilson
School: BYU | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.50
2020 Stats: 12 games, 3,692 passing yards, 33 TDs, 3 INTs, Comp. Pct: 73.5%, 254 Ru. Yards, 10 Ru. TDs, 88.6 QBR (4th)
Another consensus selection that has been thought of for weeks following the trade of Sam Darnold to Carolina is Wilson to New York. A fast riser among many draft boards, the BYU product raised eyebrows-a-plenty this offseason after an impressive Junior year and Pro Day in March. Though much of the statistical increase (+11.1% completion percentage, +3.5 yards per attempt, +29 Pass/Rush TD’s) from 2019 to 2020 should largely be attributed to the lack of Power 5 opponents last season, scouts have raved about his ability to throw the ball throughout this pre-draft process. I personally question the decision to deal Darnold for essentially a similar style of a quarterback, who offers a lot of “wow”, yet also plenty of “WTF” moments throughout his college career. A good portion of Darnold’s demise in New York had to do with the lack surrounding the young signal caller with talent and developing him from a coaching perspective. Now the Salah era has begun, and adding wide receiver Corey Davis and 2020 first round pick offensive tackle Mekhi Becton is surely a start in the right direction, it will be tough to get off to a hot start to Wilson’s career in these conditions, especially considering you fall in a division with some of the best defensive minds in football in Belichick, McDermott, and Flores. People in New York will need patience to allow this situation to play out. If not, you will be looking at the same situation four years from now.
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3 San Francisco 49ers (from MIA via HOU) – QB Mac Jones
School: Alabama | Year: Junior (RS)
Prospect Grade: 6.33
2020 Stats: 13 games, 4,500 passing yards, 41 TDs, 4 INTs, Comp. Pct: 77.4%, 14 Ru. Yards, 1 Ru. TD, 96.1 QBR (1st)
Before I get into my take, let me say this. Two or three of these top tier quarterbacks in this draft are going to underwhelm. Whether it be injuries, lack of development, or the situation they fall in, a few of these guys will not perform up to the expectations of a top 10 pick. Patrick Mahomes would not be a MVP and Super Bowl champion this early if Chicago took him over Kansas City, who traded up and allowed him to inherit one of the best offensive minds of this generation, one of the fastest players in NFL history, and an all-time talent at tight end. Josh Rosen was one of the most talented prospects in 2018, but landed with two teams who were bad enough to land the number one pick in the drafts that followed, then eventually landed with a team that ironically enough traded up to select a quarterback in this very slot. Most NFL success is completely situational. With that being said, let me play devil’s advocate and tell you why Jones to San Francisco is not as bad as it seems on the surface.
Jones, while not the most talented player at his position available, is the best fit for what Kyle Shanahan and company want to do with their offense. Let’s take a look back in his history as an offensive coordinator to see his former quarterbacks. As an OC of the Texans (2008-2009), he had Matt Schaub. As an OC of Washington (2010-2013), though he had RGIII one year, he had Kirk Cousins, who he initially recruited when he first got the 49ers job. Then in Atlanta (2015-2016), he had Matt Ryan and since has had good ole Jimmy G when healthy. What is the common theme here? A bunch of middle-of-the-road quarterbacks, who on their best day can look like a Pro Bowler, but lack the mobility or gunslinger-mentality to shy away from the offensive system. Enter Mac Jones. By far the least mobile of the bunch, but quite possibly the smartest. Jones spent most of his collegiate career backing up Tua, but used that time wisely, earning a 4.0 GPA and graduating in three years before taking over the reigns full-time in 2020. In his one season as a starter, he had north of a 10:1 TD:INT ratio and broke Colt McCoy’s completion percentage record for a season (77.4%), leading the Crimson Tide to the National Championship. Now with all the talent surrounding him, you must take that immediate success with a grain of salt, however one thing is clear: Jones will succeed if you put him in the right situation. Executives have called him the most pro-ready prospect at his position, so there is plenty of precedent to see why Shanahan would opt to go with the Alabama product. What better situation could you ask for with two young first round wide receivers, an All-Pro tight end in George Kittle, and Trent Williams, who is widely regarded as the NFL’s best left tackle? Whether Jones should be the ideal pick or not is very much up for debate. What is not debatable is the amount of success Jones should have, at least early on, considering the situation he will inherit.
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4. Atlanta Falcons – TE Kyle Pitts
School: Florida | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 7.19
2020 Stats: 8 games, 43 REC, 770 Yds, 17.9 YPC, 12 TDs
Contrary to Pitts’ belief, I do not feel as though he will have to wait past the fourth pick to hear his name called. Dubbed the ultimate can’t-miss prospect, Pitts is well-regarded as the best non-quarterback in this class. But why would a team who hasn’t been able to stop anyone defensively go offense with their first pick, especially at tight end? The answer is simple. This ever-changing sport we all know and love has become an offensive game, filled with coaches and players looking to expose mismatches on a weekly basis. How much better does it get with a 6’6 tight end that can burn you with a 4.40 40? If you look throughout the NFL, there are very few players among that position with the ability to perform at an elite level, regardless of matchup. Pitts will develop into one of those guys rather quickly. Atlanta may benefit more of taking a “best player available” approach, rather than drafting for need when picking this high. While there has been talk in recent weeks about moving down, it seems as though the Denver Broncos are the only realistic trade partner for those quarterback-needy teams. Going from 9 to 4 should not cost a premium, but that is likely what Atlanta is going to ask for. Overplaying your hand will cause teams to fold and I believe that is what could very well happen here, especially with the following two picks looking rather concrete. Still, drafting Pitts gives the Falcons a blue chip prospect for a team looking to retool in a division that has no team atop for the long term (assuming Brady is not contending for Super Bowls in his 50’s).
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5. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Ja’Marr Chase
School: LSU | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 7.12
2019 Stats: (2020 DNP; COVID- Opt-Out) 14 games, 84 REC, 1780 Yds, 21.2 YPC, 20 TDs
This is where the draft gets very interesting. Most people believe it is imperative that Cincinnati not pass on Sewell, who is widely dubbed as the top offensive lineman in this class, but I do not see it that way. Sure, it is essential to improve PFF’s 30th ranked offensive line, especially after a season-ending knee injury to Burrow last year, but the Bengals already have a pair of quality offensive tackles on the roster with 2019 first rounder Jonah Williams and veteran free agent signee Riley Reiff. There is plenty of quality depth for interior offensive lineman on Day 2 of the draft, which is why I believe Chase makes more sense here. Chase, even after opting out of the 2020 season, still remains the top receiver in this class, especially after his breakout 2019 campaign alongside Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow at LSU. Even Bengals Head Coach Zac Taylor has acknowledged that their previous connection in college warrants serious consideration in regards to their fifth pick. The only way this pick is justified is if Cincinnati continues to build up front with the rest of their draft capital and post-draft free agency. Should they address those issues, the Bengals should be ecstatic donning one of the best young receiving trios featuring Chase, Boyd, and Higgins moving forward, which will ease the sting of the recently departed A.J. Green.
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6. Miami Dolphins (from PHI) – OT Penei Sewell
School: Oregon | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.73
After the Dolphins traded back from the 3rd pick to 12th, but immediately back up to 6th, it was reasonable to believe they were setting themselves up to take one of the top receiving prospects in the draft. However with the recent move of dealing Ereck Flowers to Washington and with the announcement of 2020 2nd round pick Robert Hunt moving to guard, that paves the way for Miami to pounce on the draft’s top left tackle. Sewell, who will not turn 21 until October, is one of the youngest draft prospects, yet has one of the highest ceilings according to most scouts. Miami needs to ease Tua into his role as their future quarterback and one of the easiest ways to do that is solidify the offensive line. Skill players such as former college teammates Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith could surely do the trick as well, however with three more picks in the top 50 of this draft, my guess is Miami will find a prospect or two to add to their skill position group that already includes former first round picks DeVante Parker and Will Fuller V.
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7. Philadelphia Eagles (MT w/ DET) – WR Jaylen Waddle
School: Alabama | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.86
2020 Stats: 6 games, 28 REC, 591 Yds, 21.1 YPC, 4 TDs
TRADE – The Eagles trade back into the top 10 like their previous trade partner to secure the best receiver available on their board. It will surprise many that the reigning Heisman winner will be passed over for his Alabama teammate, but the talk across the league is Waddle is the preferred receiver between the two. He has been heavily linked to Philadelphia leading up to the draft and provides a dynamic ability that is eerily similar to All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill. Looking at his overall statistics, you don’t see a player that warrants top 10 pick consideration, but the hope is he can improve a unit that is left essentially baron with the departures of DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery with Zach Ertz expected to follow them out the door potentially before the end of the weekend. The Eagles opted to part ways with Head Coach Doug Pederson over GM Howie Roseman this offseason, so it is imperative he hits on this upcoming draft or we could very well see him out of a job this time next year. This is the same guy who opted to take Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson just last year, the latter of which broke Randy Moss’ single-season receiving yards record. Look back a year further and you will find the Eagles taking J.J. Arcega-Whiteside over D.K. Metcalf and Terry McLaurin. Taking another undersized receiver mostly known for his speed could leave the unit still lacking if Travis Fulgham’s midseason surge is ultimately deemed an anomaly.
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8. New England Patriots (MT w/ CAR) – QB Justin Fields
School: Ohio State | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.45
2020 Stats: 8 games, 2,100 passing yards, 22 TDs, 6 INTs, Comp. Pct: 69.2%, 383 Ru. Yards, 5 Ru. TDs, 91.7 QBR (2nd)
TRADE – Fields in my eyes is equivalent to Deshaun Watson in terms of lack of respect leading up to the draft. He has all the physical traits you could ask for in a quarterback and has played in big moments, especially impressive showings in the 2020 College Football Playoff while nursing a rib injury, albeit in a losing effort. Yet with all of these things in his favor, Fields finds himself drafted as the fifth quarterback in this class. Whether or not that is justified is up for debate, but Fields will wind up in a better situation because of it. New England comes off of a down year while watching their long-time quarterback lead his new team to a Super Bowl victory. The Patriots made the most of their cap space by retooling their roster with several upgrades, especially among their league-worst skill position group headlined by tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Cam Newton returned on a short term deal and while he may be the starter come September, New England has been heavily involved in trade talks about moving into the top 10 should Fields fall. Fields to New England would be the ultimate eye roll to football fans ready to see the franchise move into irrelevance after a 19 year run as a Super Bowl contender. The Ohio State quarterback should transition the organization into a successful new era in Foxborough.
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9. Chicago Bears (MT w/ DEN) – QB Trey Lance
School: North Dakota State | Year: Sophomore (RS)
Prospect Grade: 6.47
2019 Stats: (DNP in 2020; School Opt-Out) 16 games, 2,786 passing yards, 28 TDs, 0 INTs, Comp. Pct: 66.9%, 1100 Ru. Yards, 14 Ru. TDs, N/A QBR (FCS)
TRADE – All it takes is one move to turn everyone’s mock drafts upside down. Several had Denver moving up to 4 to select a quarterback, however the trade on Wednesday to acquire Teddy Bridgewater all but signaled a new team moving up for Lance. While Lawrence is regarded as the can’t-miss prospect at quarterback, Lance is easily seen as the most polarizing. Perhaps the most eye-popping numbers of any prospect in this draft, Lance accounted for 42 touchdowns to 0 turnovers in his lone season as a starter in 2019, en route to an FCS National Championship. Though his resume is relatively small, he has impressed scouts and coaches enough throughout the draft process to be considered a top prospect that many believe should be taken by San Francisco at 3. Drafting Lance would not mean he would need to be thrown into the fire Week 1, as the Bears still have a capable starter in Andy Dalton. The 20 year-old would be able work on his skills and gain experience while sitting behind a 10 year veteran. This move obviously will cost a pretty penny, but we have seen similar moves such as Kansas City and Houston moving up in 2017 that make it worth the extra draft capital spent. It is time for the Bears to finally find their quarterback of the future and picking one in a loaded class with possibly the biggest ceiling will go a long way into making that a reality.
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10. Dallas Cowboys – CB Patrick Surtain II
School: Alabama | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 7.02
2020 Stats: 13 games, 37 Comb. Tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 1 INT, 9 PD, 1 TD
Dallas will actually be in a strong spot to control their own destiny when selecting their prospect of preference should the all five quarterbacks be selected in the top 10. It is no secret the Cowboys struggled immensely in the secondary last year. Although many viewed it as a mistake to let Byron Jones walk last offseason, ironically I believe it was a smart move due to the need of locking up a slew of core free agents, as well as his inability to create turnovers. It is hard to justify handing $80 million to a corner with only two interceptions over five years. With that being said, the unit undoubtedly suffered in 2020, but there are a pair of quality prospects that will reverse those fortunes rather quickly. Both Surtain II and Horn come from NFL blood and offer a ridiculous combination of skill set and athleticism (Graded out with Relative Athletic Scores of 9.96 and 9.99 respectively, both of which rank in the top seven since 1987), and while they are very well considered 1a and 1b in this class, they offer very different styles of play. Horn is the physical man-to-man corner, while Surtain II is the finesse player that excels in Cover 3, the scheme in which new Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn has had considerable success, especially in his days with Seattle with the Legion of Boom. Both offer the opportunity of an immediate upgrade, but I will give Surtain II the slight edge right now to be the first defensive player off the board.
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11. New York Giants – OL Rashawn Slater
School: Northwestern | Year: Senior
Prospect Grade: 6.70
Slater is one of the most difficult players to place in the mock draft. He is considered by some to even be the top lineman in his class due to versatility and tape, yet the lack of clarity for what position he will play further clouds what team will target him. Enter New York. The Giants have several areas to address, but after the additions of Kenny Golladay and John Ross, alongside a promising Darius Slayton and veteran Sterling Shepard, it is hard to believe they will target a receiver like many viewed prior to free agency. Last year, New York took Andrew Thomas as the first lineman off the board and he underwhelmed as a rookie. With a recently departed Kevin Zeitler and Nate Solder, who will likely not be on the roster after this season, the organization needs to continue building up front. Slater has had high praise throughout the draft process, with a notable shutout of reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young in 2019 atop his resume. His lack of length (33’ arms) have many believing he will slide inside, but recent comparisons to All-Pro Zack Martin suggest he is a prospect that should not be passed on by teams in need of line help early on. The Giants could have the steal of the first round should he fall out of the top 10.
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12. Detroit Lions (MT w/ PHI via MIA through SF) – LB Micah Parsons
School: Penn State | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.89
2019 Stats: (Did not play in 2020; COVID- Opt-Out) 13 games, 109 Comb. Tackles, 5 sacks, 14.0 TFLs, 5 PDs, 4 FFs, 1 FR
Detroit is in a tough spot after the departure of Matthew Stafford. While they did receive a formidable replacement in Jared Goff, they will enter the 2021 season with one of the worst overall rosters in the NFL. Trading back will allow the team to accumulate draft capital to fill out their roster, and perhaps an additional move back will still allow the Lions to land an ideal prospect. Wide receiver is a glaring need after the departures of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr., but let’s be clear; Detroit was awful against the run last season, allowing 135 rushing yards per game and a league-high 27 rushing touchdowns. Parsons is a top 10 prospect that has been overlooked by many as a talent with the offensive players garnering much of the attention leading into draft week. Everything about his game points to being arguably the top defensive prospect, however “off-the-field concerns” could cause the Nittany Lion to drop. Were it not for Detroit’s double trade, I could see the linebacker falling out of the first half of the first round. Despite the issues, Parsons would be an immediate upgrade for a franchise severely lacking in cornerstone pieces. Should he put the character issues behind him, he should have ample opportunity to be a heavy favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
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13. Los Angeles Chargers – CB Jaycee Horn
School: South Carolina | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.46
2020 Stats: 7 games, 16 Comb. Tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 INTs, 6 PD
Los Angeles will really be torn should they stand pat at 13. It is no secret that Los Angeles needs a left tackle, but deciding between that and a potential shutdown corner will be a decision that will likely be based on what position they could target on Day 2 of the draft. Horn, as previously mentioned, is an exceptional man-to-man corner that had the second best Relative Athletic Score (9.99) at the position since 1987. The Chargers on paper last year had one of the top secondaries entering the 2020 season, however a season-ending injury to Derwin James and down years from veteran corners Chris Harris and Casey Hayward led to the unit producing middle of the pack numbers. With Hayward no longer rostered, and the soon-to-be 32 year-old Harris primarily used as a slot corner, the organization needs to find a quality starting corner that can come in and weather the storm against the strong wide receiver corps in the AFC West. Sewell or Slater would likely be the bigger impact rookie, however it is unlikely that either of those prospects will fall this far. This decision will come down to reaching on the next best tackle such as Christian Darrisaw, or taking the best available player. Regardless, either decision will be a significant improvement, nonetheless.
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14. Minnesota Vikings – DE Kwity Paye
School: Michigan | Year: Senior
Prospect Grade: 6.44
2020 Stats: 4 games, 16 Comb. Tackles, 2.0 sacks, 4.0 TFLs
2019 Stats: 12 games, 50 Comb. Tackles, 6.5 sacks, 12.5 TFLs
Like the Chargers, Minnesota would probably prefer one of the top two offensive lineman fall to 14 after letting go of left tackle Riley Reiff this offseason. While they have the draft capital (10 picks, including two 3rds and four 4ths), the lack of a 2nd round pick to sweeten the deal would likely result in the team standing pat. Tackle is not the only area the Vikings definitely need to address, though. Defensive minded Head Coach Mike Zimmer saw his pass rushing unit last year finish in the bottom 10 in sacks for the first time since he took over the job in 2014 (28th with 23 sacks). The offseason trade for Yannick Ngakoue last summer did not pan out, as the young edge rusher was dealt after just six games, while Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter’s unhappiness could lead to the pair parting ways before the season begins. Fortunately with a run of offensive players early in the first, it knocks down the defensive players to allow Minnesota to choose their favorite edge in the draft. Paye’s numbers do not do justice to the kind of defensive end he is. The Wolverine receives high praise for his quickness off of the line and ability to use his hands. He is a rugged hand in the dirt end that should slide into Minnesota’s scheme quite nicely. Alone, he won’t fix their pass rushing woes, but it is a start.
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15. Carolina Panthers (MT w/ NE) – OT Christian Darrisaw
School: Virginia Tech | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.45
Carolina trades down and still is able to fill a huge need on the offensive line after a few offensive line-needy teams pass on the Hokie. Darrisaw was overlooked as just a three star recruit coming out of high school, yet was one of nine true freshmen to start in the FBS in 2018. Coming into the draft with 35 starts at both tackle slots, his experience is unmatched compared to fellow lineman in his class. Last draft, the Panthers used all seven of their draft selections on the defensive side of the ball, so I envision they go offensively for most of their top selections this draft. Sam Darnold looks to have a fresh start in a more quarterback-friendly offense, it will be essential to protect him upfront, so he does not see “ghosts” all over again in Carolina. Getting an additional first, while finding an answer at left tackle would be the perfect scenario for a young Panthers team that will look to make some noise in 2021.
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16. Arizona Cardinals – WR DeVonta Smith
School: Alabama | Year: Senior
Prospect Grade: 7.13
2020 Stats: 13 games, 117 REC, 1856 Yds, 15.9 YPC, 24 TDs, Punt Returns: 11 RET, 237 Yds, 21.5 YPR, 1 TD
Woah, woah, woah. How does a Heisman winner fall this far in the draft? First off, let’s drop that narrative. The Heisman has a long history of putting out prospects that underwhelmed in the NFL. Instead, let’s focus on Smith the player and how his game can translate to the next level. Concerns about his size (weighed in at 166 lbs last week) are legitimate, and a few teams and scouts could prefer Waddle, which could lead to a slight dip in the draft. However, it is hard to imagine a better situation than landing in a high powered offense led by Kyler Murray, where the All-American can learn and grow with two Hall of Fame receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green on the outside. Sure, Arizona has more pressing needs than a receiver, but the quality of draft prospects dips significantly after this slot, as further indicated with Carolina coming out recently saying they only have 16 prospects with round 1 grades. In this range, the Cardinals should take the best player available approach. Taking Smith will add a dynamic ability to their offense that was lacking when Hopkins was not 100% healthy last season.
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17. Las Vegas Raiders – S Trevon Moehrig
School: TCU | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.35
2020 Stats: 10 games, 47 Comb. Tackles, 2.0 TFLs, 2 INT, 9 PD
Offensive line should be the area to address, but GM Mike Mayock’s reported satisfaction, despite losing three starters this offseason lead me to believe they will look elsewhere in the draft. Las Vegas has holes on all levels defensively, but the biggest issue has to be the inability to perform in the secondary. They have ranked 27th or worse in interceptions in three of the last four years, while allowing 97 passing touchdowns since 2018, good for second-most in that span. Lamarcus Joyner was a high profile free agent miss that was let go this offseason, and while the Raiders brought back 2016 first round pick Karl Joseph, there is little reason to believe he can shoulder the load on the back end alongside Johnathan Abram, who is best suited as a box safety. The Raiders have been one of the most unpredictable teams during the draft, having reached on several of their five first round picks over the last two years. The 2020 Jim Thorpe Award winner is regarded as the top free safety in this class and has excelled in coverage in his last two seasons, accumulating 20 pass deflections and eight turnovers forced (6 INT’s, 2 FF’s) with the Horned Frogs. Pairing him with Abram will allow Las Vegas to utilize both of their strengths and be a step in the right direction to improving their secondary.
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18. Miami Dolphins – RB Najee Harris
School: Alabama | Year: Senior
Prospect Grade: 6.46
2020 Stats: 13 games, 251 Carries, 1466 Rush Yds, 5.8 YPC, 43 REC, 425 rec yds, 30 TDs
See, the Dolphins opt to reunite Tua with a skill player from Alabama after all! Miami seems to be one of the primary spots to land one of the top three running backs, but with other running back-needy teams such as the Jets, Steelers, Bills, and Falcons all positioned ahead of their next pick at 36, it might be ideal to lock up the prospect of their preference before that run of teams begins. Miami is rumored to be a huge fan of the new all-time touchdown leader in SEC history (57- Tied with Tim Tebow) before the draft, and in a weird offseason with no combine, they were able to spend some time with Harris earlier in the offseason when the Dolphins coached for the Senior Bowl. Harris has a high motor as a running back and improved his pass catching skills after taking over the starting role from Josh Jacobs following his departure in 2019. He does not have top end speed, similar to Melvin Gordon in that aspect, but he is the running back prospect most likely capable of handling a three down role out of the gate. Harris is closer to his ceiling and isn’t as dynamic, but nothing helps a young quarterback grow more than a strong running game. I expect him to fill that role well for the next few years.
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19. Washington Football Team – LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
School: Notre Dame | Year: Junior (RS)
Prospect Grade: 6.82
2020 Stats: 12 games, 62 Comb. Tackles, 1.5 sacks, 11.0 TFLs, 1 INT, 3 FFs, 2 FRs, 1 TD
Washington has become one the NFL’s premier defenses over the last year, and could look to strengthen the unit even more with do-it-all linebacker Owusu-Koramoah. After the Bridgewater trade, my initial thought was to put the team in position to land one of the top quarterbacks. Recent reports suggest that a trade up could happen, but it will not be for a quarterback. Let’s assume after a trade-filled top 12, they stand pat. Owusu-Koramoah is an electric defensive player that can line up all over the field and just makes plays. The major concern is if his position-less skillset can translate into the NFL. The Cardinals took a position-less player last year in Isaiah Simmons, who was one of the bigger rookie disappointments. Though the Notre Dame linebacker lacks ideal size for his position, his versatility is unquestioned, especially in coverage. The ACC Defensive Player of the Year will bring leadership and explosiveness to a Washington team that has a few holes left to fill in the middle of the field.
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20. Denver Broncos (MT w/ CHI) – OT Alijah Vera-Tucker
School: USC | Year: Junior (RS)
Prospect Grade: 6.43
Denver gains an extra first rounder and more after trading back following a trade for Teddy Bridgewater. While I do not condone opting for the veteran over taking one of the intriguing young prospects available at quarterback, it is probably most beneficial to take those extra picks and cross their fingers for a quality prospect to fall to 20. Vera-Tucker is viewed as the top interior lineman in this class, but does have experience at left tackle as well. Denver’s line, aside from left tackle Garrett Bolles, leaves much to be desired. Dalton Risner struggled as a run blocker, finishing with the fourth-worst run blocking grade among all guards that played at least 750 snaps. Vera-Tucker is not a sexy pick by any stretch, but is one of the safest prospects in this range and will provide an upgrade for the Broncos, even if a quarterback would have been more ideal.
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21. New Orleans Saints (MT w/ IND) – CB Caleb Farley
School: Virginia Tech | Year: Junior (RS)
Prospect Grade: 6.38
2019 Stats: (Did not play in 2020; COVID- Opt-Out) 10 games, 20 Comb. Tackles, 4 INTs, 12 PDs
TRADE- The Saints will be one of the most interesting teams to watch in 2021 after the retirement of Drew Brees. They are deadlast in cap space, which indicates more moves will be made within the roster, but still are reportedly looking to be aggressive in the draft, in particular for an intriguing prospect with several question marks. The departure of veteran Janoris Jenkins leaves a huge gap on the perimeter of their secondary. Early in this draft process, Farley was right up there with Surtain II as the top corner in this class, however uncertainties regarding his multiple back surgeries and his limited experience could cause him to slide into the 20s. Originally he was recruited as a receiver, but was converted to cornerback after a knee injury sidelined him during his freshman year. His size combined with his ball skills show that he can develop into a solid starter to pair with Marshon Lattimore, but he needs more reps in order to determine how high his ceiling can be.
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22. Tennessee Titans – CB Greg Newsome II
School: Northwestern | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.40
2020 Stats: 3 games, 12 Comb. Tackles, 1 INT, 7 PD
The Titans looked to completely revamp their secondary this offseason following the releases of starters Malcolm Butler, Adoree Jackson, and Kenny Vaccaro at the start of the new league year. Signing veteran Janoris Jenkins helps fill a hole temporarily, but more is needed to be done in order to field a formidable unit in 2021. Newsome is a physical and long corner that is gifted enough to play in both man-to-man and zone coverage. In 2020, he allowed just a 31.6% completion percentage when targeted and was the top defensive back on a secondary that allowed just a 95.3 passer rating, which ranked first in the nation. He has performed, albeit on a small sample size (played in only 21 games in college). He might not be as pro-ready as other prospects at his position, but being just 20 years old, he has room to grow to live up to his first round billing.
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23. New York Jets (from SEA) – DE Jaelan Phillips
School: Miami | Year: Junior (RS)
Prospect Grade: 6.39
2020 Stats: 10 games, 45 Comb. Tackles, 8.0 sacks, 15.5 TFLs, 3 PDs
Two of the biggest unknowns leading up to the draft are the landing spots for two Hurricane pass rushers. Rousseau was thought to be the first edge to be selected, but an opt out followed by a poor pro day opened the door for others to leapfrog him, including his teammate Jaelan Phillips. After a pair of injury-riddled campaigns, Phillips finally broke out in 2020, leading the ACC in sacks (8.0) and finishing 2nd in TFLs (15.5), leading to a 2nd-team All-American honors. One of the areas Head Coach Robert Salah will like to improve on is getting to the quarterback. Signing Carl Lawson is a start, but adding a guy who can flirt with double digit sacks on a yearly basis. It is difficult to decipher between the remaining crop of pass rushers, but I am guessing the Jets are the first to gamble on his upside. New York will need to address their skill positions at some point to help their new young quarterback. I would not be surprised if they go that area here, but with the depth at those positions stronger on Day 2 of the draft, it might be more beneficial to hold off and address that area later.
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24. Pittsburgh Steelers – LB Zaven Collins
School: Tulsa | Year: Junior (RS)
Prospect Grade: 6.39
2020 Stats: 8 games, 54 Comb. Tackles, 4.0 sacks, 7.5 TFLs, 4 INTs, 2 FFs, 1 FR, 2 TDs
Let it be known that Pittsburgh should address their offensive line following the departures of long time stalwarts Alejandro Villaneuva and Maurkice Pouncey this offseason, but with a recent report suggesting they are targeting both Najee Harris and Zaven Collins, I will opt to go with that suggestion. On the surface, Collins does not come off as a sexy pick, however his all around play suggests he is the prototypical Steeler player that fills a void left by Bud Dupree, who left for Tennessee in free agency. Collins possesses tremendous size at 6’5 and 260lbs, but is also nimble enough to make plays in space, en route to being named a unanimous All-American and winning the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, an award given to the nation’s top defensive player. If he falls this far, it is hard to believe the Steelers passing on him, even with a few quality offensive lineman available.
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25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR) – OT Teven Jenkins
School: Oklahoma State | Year: Senior (RS)
Prospect Grade: 6.42
Jacksonville is reportedly looking for impact players with their 25th and 33rd picks, so enter the top right tackle in this class that will likely be highly coveted late in the first round. The three year starter at Oklahoma State is an aggressive blocker that uses his body control to finish blocks, while also quick enough to reach the second level. 2019 second round pick Jawaan Taylor has struggled since becoming a Jaguar. He finished 2020 as one of the four worst pass blocking tackles, and has allowed 17 sacks since entering the league, ranking in the bottom five each season. Protecting Trevor Lawerence will be step one in order to not have a Burrow-like situation happen during his rookie year. Aside from the tackle positions, Jacksonville actually has a formidable offensive line. Adding Jenkins solidifies one spot, while the eight remaining picks in the draft can continue to build quality depth on this roster.
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26. Cleveland Browns – LB Jamin Davis
School: Kentucky | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.35
2020 Stats: 10 games, 102 Comb. Tackles, 1.5 sacks, 4.0 TFLs, 3 INTs, 1 FF, 2 PDs, 1 TD
Davis’ draft stock has probably skyrocketed more than any other potential first round prospect in this draft. A lackluster first two seasons was followed by a breakout 102 tackle campaign, which ranked second among all SEC defenders, earning a 87.4 grade against the run in the process. His Pro Day is where he really dazzled though. He ran a 4.48 40 yard dash, while posting a 42 inch vertical (Tied for highest ever among off-ball linebackers) and an 11’0 broad jump. The Browns have done a great job elevating their defense with the additions of Jadeveon Clowney and John Johnson III, but they are still lacking in their linebacker corps. Adding will fix another weakness to don one of the best overall rosters in football.
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27. Baltimore Ravens – OT Dillon Radunz
Dillon Radunz, OT
School: North Dakota State | Year: Senior (RS)
Prospect Grade: 6.25
The recent trade of Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Brown Jr. netted Baltimore an additional first rounder, and while they are rumored to be targeting a wide receiver with one of their two late firsts, the tackle spot needs to be addressed first. Radunz excelled in a run heavy offense as a member of the Bison, earning consensus All-American honors in 2019 after allowing 0 sacks, while recording 63 knockdowns. Like fellow teammate Trey Lance, one of the main questions about his success is a lack of competition in the FCS. Taking Radunz here may seem like a bit of a reach, but a lack of a second round pick should convince Baltimore to address the unit with one of their two picks. He may need some time to develop, or need to be kicked inside early on, but he should mesh well with Lamar Jackson and company’s run-heavy offense.
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28. Indianapolis Colts (MT w/ NO) – Edge Gregory Rousseau
School: Miami | Year: Sophomore (RS)
Prospect Grade: 6.30
2019 Stats: (Did not play in 2020; COVID- Opt-Out) 13 games, 54 Comb. Tackles, 15.5 sacks, 19.5 TFLs, 1 PD, 2 FFs, 1 FR
The biggest mystery in the draft is the potential of Rousseau, whose stock has dipped considerably since the beginning of the pre-draft process. After leading the ACC with 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFLs in 2019 as a 19 year-old, he was one of the first prospects to announce an opt out for the 2020 season. After the combine was cancelled and fellow edge rushers exploded with strong Pro Days, Rousseau underwhelmed in terms of his numbers. One thing you cannot teach is size, though. At 6’7 and 266 lbs, he has one of the longest frames among all edge rushers, but only 13 starts entering the NFL leaves many to wonder whether or not his break-out year is a sign of things to come or not. Indianapolis severely lacks depth at defensive end, which would throw Rousseau into an immediate starting role. If he can develop quickly, we may have the steal of the first round on our hands, but a slow start out of the gate is very much as likely.
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29. Green Bay Packers – WR Elijah Moore
Elijah Moore, WR
School: Mississippi | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.43
2020 Stats: 8 games, 86 REC, 1193 Yds, 13.9 YPC, 8 TDs
It almost seems like a sin to predict Green Bay would actually target a receiver in the first round, especially after what happened in last year’s draft, but here we are. Despite picking two reserves with their opening round selections, the Packers still managed to go 13-3 and were within 10 yards of a potential Super Bowl berth. The receivers for Green Bay did take a step in the right direction in 2020, but Aaron Rodgers was still overly reliant on Davante Adams throughout the year, leading all wide receivers in targets per game (10.88). While it helps to have one of the best at the position, it would be nice to find a reliable presence opposite Adams to help their quarterback out for once. Something that has been sorely missed in recent years is the underneath reliable threat that was left when Randall Cobb departed. Elijah Moore could fill that role, and possibly add a tad more explosiveness as well. He is a strong route runner that outside of maybe DeVonta Smith, had the strongest finish to his collegiate career, averaging 13 catches and over 200 yards per game over his final three. Green Bay reportedly holds him high on their priority as the draft approaches. The first round buzz is legitimate, so don’t be surprised if the Packers have an immediate role for him out of the gate.
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30. Buffalo Bills – RB Travis Etienne
School: Clemson | Year: Senior
Prospect Grade: 6.71
2020 Stats: 12 games, 148 Carries, 914 Rush Yds, 5.4 YPC, 48 REC, 588 rec yds, 16 TDs
Another running back off the board in the first round? You bet! Etienne and Williams are receiving a lot of round 1 buzz, and I would not be surprised if Buffalo pounces. The Bills were on a tear last season, yet struggled on the ground as the season waned. During the playoffs, their running backs averaged 2.9 yards per carry on 28 attempts without a single touchdown from the unit. Lead backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss were not able to garner much help in the passing game, either. Both running backs graded out 46th and 29th, among their position respectively. Etienne shattered several ACC records throughout his duration as a Clemson Tiger, including all-time touchdowns (78), total yards from scrimmage (6,107), and yards per carry (7.2). He is easily the biggest home run hitter in this draft at running back, a feat several contenders could use. The Bills have shown interest in trading up for him on draft night, so it would be the perfect scenario if he were to fall in their laps without raising a finger.
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31. Baltimore Ravens (from KC) – WR Rashod Bateman
School: Minnesota | Year: Junior
Prospect Grade: 6.27
2020 Stats: 5 games, 36 REC, 472 Yds, 13.1 YPC, 2 TDs
While I believe Baltimore’s wide receiver woes are slightly over exaggerated, it is obvious they do not have a true X receiver on their roster. Marquise Brown should not be considered a bust being the first wide receiver taken in 2019, but considering six receivers from that class have outperformed him statistically thus far is very telling. Adding an outside presence will not only ease the burden on him, but on Lamar Jackson as well. Bateman has been one of the most productive receivers in college since 2019, averaging an impressive 17.6 yards per catch on 1691 yards with 13 touchdowns in 18 games. The Ravens have had their eye on both the Golden Gopher and LSU wideout Terrace Marshall Jr., and while the latter is the more physically imposing, momentum for the latter’s pairing has faded largely due to his medical history. Bateman alone won’t fix Baltimore’s issues at receiver, but it is a step in the right direction that will allow others to slide into their respective roles easier.
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32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Edge Jayson Oweh
School: Penn State | Year: Sophomore (RS)
Prospect Grade: 6.44
2020 Stats: 7 games, 38 Comb. Tackles, 6.5 TFLs, 1 PD
Oweh headlines a list of potential first round prospects with buzz solely based on potential. He is an athletic specimen that popped off after a fantastic pro day, posting a 4.36 40, 11’2 broad jump, and 39.5 inch vertical as a 257 pound edge rusher. The biggest concern was his lack of recording a single sack during his abbreviated 2020 season. Should he be drafted in the first, he will be only the second edge rusher to be drafted in round 1 in spite of recording zero sacks during his final collegiate season. Despite this, he still graded out as a solid pass rusher (80.3), as well as an elite run stopper (89.8), according to Pro Football Focus. Tampa Bay seems like the perfect landing spot for him to develop his pass rushing skills behind Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett. The Buccaneers will bring back all 22 starters in 2021, and coming off of a Super Bowl run, there are not any pressing needs, so it makes sense to go with a developmental guy with a strong upside here. Tampa will likely be the Super Bowl favorite going into 2021 and while Oweh likely won’t be a key piece on that run, he should at least have a rotational role on passing downs.
Mock Trades:
PHI receives: 7th overall pick, 2021 4th round pick (112th)
DET receives: 12th overall pick, 2021 third round pick (70th), 2022 second round pick (PHI)
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NE receives: 8th overall pick
CAR receives: 15th overall pick, 2021 fourth round pick (120th), 2022 first round pick (NE), 2022 third round pick (NE)
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CHI receives: 9th overall pick
DEN receives: 20th overall pick, 2021 third round pick (83rd), 2022 first round pick (CHI)
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NO receives: 21st overall pick, 2022 fifth round pick (IND)
IND receives: 28th overall pick, 2021 third round pick (98th), 2022 fourth round pick (NO)
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Notable Veterans who could be one the move during or after draft day:
TE Zach Ertz
CB Stephon Gilmore
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
WR Julio Jones (will not happen before 6/3)
TE David Njoku
WR Anthony Miller
This Just In 