2pm CST – 400 miles/267 laps (186.9 total dominator points)

Today is a crap shoot. Atlanta is repaved to reflect a superspeedway (Daytona, Talladega I.e. a lot of three wide racing resulting in more potential for big crashes to wipe out anyone in the field). Usually with this type of race, there are no dominators, however due to having slightly more laps, William Byron scored 86.9 at the first race here this year (111 laps led, but only 7 fastest laps). That being said, 14 different drivers led at least five laps and five guys led 20+. This race will have 58 fewer laps than the spring race so that lowers the dominator potential slightly, but still puts it higher than at Talladega and Daytona, which never has more than 200 laps in a race. There was not practice yesterday and qualifying was rained out so literally lap one will be the first time the drivers have touched the track since March. 

When making lineups, salary DOES NOT matter. Don’t worry about the remainder you will have. Pick six guys you think will run well and avoid trouble. I will list all of the guys that could be strong plays and it’s almost a mathematical certainty that at least a few of them crash. Do not pick more than one person starting in the top 10, and it’s highly recommended to pick at least four drivers starting 20th or worse. 

*Salaries are in reference to DraftKings*

High priced guys:

Ryan Blaney ($10.7k- 6th)– Blaney has been to most consistent drivers at superspeedways with three wins since 2019. In the spring race, Blaney was in 4th on the final lap and hit the wall resulting in a mediocre fantasy score due to starting 2nd. Today starting 6th significantly lowers his ceiling, but he’s a favorite to win, he’s due for a win, and he has the track type history to back it up. Usually the guys that run up front are more likely to stay out of trouble and Blaney never tends to get caught up in the middle of the pack. 

Denny Hamlin ($9.6k- 16th)– Like Blaney, Hamlin is among the best at this track type, also having three wins since 2019, the only two drivers with more than one. He also has the most top 5s and top 10s with 7 and 8 respectively, while also leading the most laps at these races in that span. I know he got caught up in a wreck in March at Atlanta, but in practice, he was 3rd in 5 lap and first in both 10 and 15 lap averages. This season, he ended up wrecking out early twice and ran out of gas with three laps to go at Talladega when he was running in the top seven. He’s due for a good finish on this type of track and has the historical success of running up front at these types of races.

William Byron ($9.5k- 13th) – Like mentioned previously, Byron was the lone dominator in the Spring, with a race high 86.9 FPTS and the win. In addition to dominating Atlanta, he led a race high 38 laps at Talladega as well. He’s due for a good finish after finishing outside the top 10 in nine of the last 10 races and that is a trend that can right itself at this track. I don’t expect he will be up front all day again, but he’s another that loves towards the front at these tracks. 

Bubba Wallace ($8.7k- 32nd) – I was really hoping this absurd price bump for Wallace, who has been flat out terrible this season, but after qualifying was rained out, he’s probably going to be the highest owned driver due to the place differential potential. Even with the terrible year, he’s still ran strong at these tracks, finishing 2nd at Daytona, leading 15 laps at Talladega and running 2nd at Atlanta before he and Blaney hit the wall on the last lap. If it wasn’t for such a high potential for wrecks, he would but considered a lock, however he will probably be hard to pass up due to the ability to afford literally anyone you desire.

Mid tier/punt 

Kurt Busch ($8.2k- 21st) – This is another mid tier driver that will likely grab a ton of ownership this weekend. Busch was the most recent winner at Atlanta prior to the re-pavement of the track and finished third in the Spring. He’s a veteran that has the most experience at superspeedways so he should have the speed to run near the front all day, like his teammate Bubba Wallace. I’m content with pivoting off him, but definitely would like some exposure in a few lines. 

Aric Almirola ($7.4k- 22nd) – Almirola is always one that finds away to avoid the “big one”. He finished in the top 10 in eight straight Talladega until he finished a respectable 13th at Talladega. At Atlanta, he was running 5th with 19 laps to go before getting spun out. He has won at both Daytona and Talladega as well. He probably will be under the radar this weekend, same as McDowell, though I’d rather take the 10 starting spot cushion. Won’t be in a ton of my lines but someone definitely worth mentioning!

Austin Dillon ($6.9k- 26th) – Dillon is as polarizing as they come, but he has the stats to back up as a strong superspeedway racer. Talladega he has the 2nd best average finish since 2019 and has won at Daytona. He was running third when he wrecked out early at Atlanta. He does get caught up in a lot of accidents but has some of the best place differential potential in the field. 

Erik Jones ($6.7k- 25th) – Jones would be a downright elite superspeedway racer if the last few races were one lap shorter. In each of the last two Talladega races, he was in the lead on the last lap and got turned. He also has a win at Daytona and had the ninth best driver rating at Atlanta in March. Feel very strongly about him today. Both he and Dillon are probably $1000 too cheap based on their superspeedway ability and starting spot, which is why I’m not concerned about salary remainder.

Brad Keselowski ($6.5k- 31st) – Keselowski used to be the top speedway racer in cup. His seven wins are the most of any active driver, but in recent years he has had terrible luck with wrecks at these tracks. This year, that has somewhat turned around with a 9th at Daytona and 12th at Atlanta. He’s going to be one of the highest owned drivers, but I just don’t feel as good enough about him to lock him in. Bubba Wallace is difficult to pivot off of, however there’s plenty of guys in the $6ks that can have as good, if not a better finish and are not starting too much further ahead.

Justin Haley ($6.3k- 24th) – Haley in five years could very well be the best superspeedway racer in cup. All four wins in his career in the Xfinity series came on superspeedways (2 Daytona, 2 Talladega). He even drove a part time race car to a win at summer Daytona in cup a few years ago. That race was cut short due to rain, but still. In fact, there’s rain in the forecast today at the track, so rain suits him well! He finished 11th and 12th at Atlanta and Talladega this year and is good enough to contend for a win. 

Corey LaJoie ($5.4k- 30th) – A driver on an under-funded team that has a ton of success on these tracks. He is great at avoiding wrecks and has finished 14th, 14th and 5th at superspeedways this year. LaJoie also has the 4th best average finish at superspeedways since 2019 (min. 11/14 races run). He is capable of getting a few fast laps and has a ton of place differential potential. He is also going to be a high owned punt play. Use him as much as you’d like!

Others:

For what it’s worth, even the shittiest of the shitty are worth consideration. The 77 car this year has been driven by multiple people and has finished in the top 20 in every superspeedway race (though that driver for today hasn’t been added to the player pool yet). BJ McLeod has gained at least 10 spots in all three races as well. Noah Gragson has wrecked twice, but finished 20th at the other and has two Xfinity wins at these tracks. That’s not saying I’m playing any of them, but just pointing out how random these races can be! Alright I’m done.