After a five race stretch or small sample sized tracks or road courses, we finally return to a traditional oval with tons of history. The 1.06 mile circuit has been a staple in the Cup schedule since 1993 and compares to tracks such as World Wide Technology Raceway, Phoenix and Richmond. With 318 laps, there will have to be a dominator or two in your line. Prior to last year’s slightly shortened race (called eight laps early due to darkness) where there was four drivers that led between 50-70 laps, the previous seven races here had at least two drivers lead 80 laps. New Hampshire has not previously been kind to Chevrolets with the manufacturer failing to win at each of the last 15 races. This week, there’s a few locks to be considered and after that, construct around those who you think can lead the field. Here we go!

Locks:

Kevin Harvick ($8800- 10th) –

Harvick’s recent history here has been the best of the field. In the last seven races, he has won three times and finished no worse than sixth, aside of one DNF. He got better and practice as the runs went longer, finishing 10th in 5 lap, 7th in 10 lap and 2nd in 15 lap intervals. He currently sits 19 points outside of the playoffs and New Hampshire begins a strings of Harvick-friendly tracks to strengthen his playoff push, and potentially get his first win. Stewart Haas Racing looked the strongest overall in practice and look no further than the most consistent driver in order to start off your lineup construction.

Ty Dillon ($5400- 35th) 

Ty Dillon doesn’t have a strong success here, but a respectable 16th and 22nd in his two races provide a sample of the place differential potential that can come from his poor starting spot. He ran 15th in 5 lap, 21st in 10 lap and was one of 13 cars comfortable enough to run a 15 lap interval. He won contend for a top 10 and it’s likely he won’t stay on the lead lap, but his PD upside is the strongest for a driver below $6k and he has the finishes at similar tracks to back it up. For what it’s worth, he finished sixth yesterday in the Xfinity series as well. 

Dominators

Kyle Busch ($11000- 17th)

The last two races at New Hampshire hasn’t been too kind to him, but that should not take away his dominance prior to that, with 542 laps led and three top threes in the previous six races. In practice, he was 2nd in 5 lap, and 1st in 10, 15, and 20 lap intervals. He has the speed and potential to be the high point man on the day. His high price tag hopefully will dilute his ownership. He should rack up tons of fast lap points and be running towards the front at some point during stage two. Busch has legitimate 100 fantasy point upside today and it will be hard to pass that up. 

Ryan Blaney ($10000- 11th)

Blaney’s teammate Joey Logano would be worth mentioning as a play were it not for his season-high price tag ($10800) and Penske’s surprisingly mediocre practice run. Blaney coming at a $800 discount has been one of the three best drivers at this track type this season. He has led a combined 283 laps in those races, while finishing 4th, 4th, and 7th respectively. He has also had a top five driver rating in the last three races at New Hampshire. The practice times were disappointing, however this pick is relying on the 12 car making adjustments and running in a similar fashion to how he has looked previously. 

William Byron ($9400- 6th)

Taking Byron this week relies on a somewhat opposite approach to Blaney, but that doesn’t mean both can’t be right, right? Byron has never finished in the top 10 at New Hampshire in Cup and has just one top 10 and zero top 5’s since his win at Martinsville in April, but he was 1st in 5 lap and 3rd in 10 lap intervals in practice and led 22 laps in yesterday’s Xfinity race before bowing out with electrical issues. Byron should be considered a solid pivot off other drivers in the $9-$10k range with contestants likely siding to spend elsewhere. This is a guy pick more than anything, so sprinkle him in your lines at will!

Christopher Bell ($9100- 5th)

Bell likely will be another driver overlooked due to his high starting position, however his recent history suggests it is justified. In Xfinity, he posted a perfect three wins in three races and last year, he was running down Aric Almirola before the race was called eight laps early. In practice, he did not run more than a 5 lap interval, but his speed was not the quickest. Stacking Busch and Bell would be a great way to invest into JGR this week, let’s just hope Truex Jr. does not stay out front too long.

Core plays

Chase Briscoe ($8400- 29th)

Briscoe was one of the pleasant surprises in practice yesterday finishing 3rd in 5 lap and 2nd in 10 lap intervals. He has only one career Cup start here, which resulted in a mediocre 27th place, however his strong practice, coupled with his low starting position is exactly what you look for when constructing the remainder of your lineup. His teammates Kevin Harvick and Aric Almirola have won three of the last four races here, which is a strong indication of how well SHR runs here. This should correlate in all three cars running well on Sunday. 

Aric Almirola ($8100- 7th)

Speak of the devil, the most recent New Hampshire winner was once again fast at practice, posting 9th, 5th, and 3rd in 5, 10, and 15 lap intervals. Since he took over the 10 car in 2018, he has finished no worse than 11th, led laps in all four races, and finished in the top three twice. This is his best track and he will need a strong run to close the 42 point gap between he and Christopher Bell for the final playoff spot. With Harvick being a lock, it would be a strong bet to pair him with a teammate, but it is also viable to roster all three if desired.

Value plays

Austin Dillon ($6300- 30th)

Dillon has not had a ton of great runs at New Hampshire, but has been relatively solid with finishes of 19th or better in nine of 12 career races here. His starting position gives some place differential upside. You don’t need a ton of points for him to return value at this salary, but this opens up some room to spend up on a few dominators. 

Justin Haley ($5900- 25th)

Haley has had a strong rookie year and quietly has posted eight finishes of 14th or better in the past 12 races. In practice, he was a respectable 16th in overall and 5 lap intervals and has finishes of 14th and 17th at the similar tracks to back that up. Richmond he finished 29th, however he posted 10 fast laps and still had a +7 place differential due to starting 36th. He’s perhaps the safest option among all drivers below $6k

Harrison Burton ($5200- 31st)

Burton hasn’t done much in his rookie year, however he was very fast in practice, finishing 6th in 10 and 15 lap intervals. His lone race here in Xfinity resulted in a fifth place finish as well. The 21 car has also had relatively strong success in the last eight races at New Hampshire, finishing no worse than 19th along with a pair of top 10s. Based on his season, I don’t expect him to contend for a top 10, but a top 20 finish potential for a driver this cheap is really difficult to pass up.