This week NASCAR finds it’s way back to a classic at the Tricky Triangle. The 2.5 mile track has been a staple in NASCAR since 1974, however this will be the first season in 41 years that only one race will be run here. Joe Gibbs has won seven of the last nine races here. With just 160 laps (112 dominator points), we likely will not have to worry about a single driver dominating the race, as no one has led more than 79 laps since the first of two races in 2017. This race has turned into several weird finishes over the years, with fuel mileage or last lap tire issues gifting victories to the likes of Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, and Alex Bowman. Place differential is key today, but you could see a few more gambles than normal today to lock up a playoff spot as the wild race to September continues.

Locks:

Ross Chastain ($10.0k- 21st)

Based on practice, this looks like a Trackhouse Racing type of week. Chastain topped the charts in both overall and five lap intervals and made it all the more interesting with his subpar qualifying effort. The track history is definitely underwhelming with 0 top 20s in his previous four races, both those results must be taken with a grain of salt since they were prior to him joining the 1 car. He should be fast and that is advantageous on a track that involves three long straightaways. Ross should be contending for a top five today, which puts him in the optimal line in doing so.

Erik Jones ($7.6k- 34th)

Jones is only individual who turned in great practice times but had an atrocious qualifying effort, due to brushing the wall. In a limited practice, he was 3rd overall and 4th in five lap intervals. Jones has also had three top 5’s in the last six races here as well. I expect him to contend for a top 20 finish and potentially take a few risks to contend for a win, since this is likely his second best opportunity to win and get in the postseason. 

Dominators:

Kyle Busch ($10.6k- 2nd)

Boy, did Busch let us down last week. After dominating practice and having mad point differential potential, he finished with .45 dominator points and a mediocre 12th place finish, while his three teammates dominated the race and all finished in the top 6. Let’s try again this week at a track he has an even stronger history with. At Pocono, he has led in 12 of the last 13 races, and has won four of the last nine. 

I don’t expect a dominant race, but it will take a ton of laps led to consider him a lock. I like him contending for at least a top five finish, but for someone who has failed to have a top 10 run in five races, there is more risk involved. 

Denny Hamlin ($10.4k- 1st)

Pocono has been Hamlin’s best track since he entered in Cup in 2006. He has six wins here, including two in the last five races. His 4.7 average finish and 120.3 driver rating tops the field. Starting on the pole will have him up front early, but at the same time limits his floor with no place differential. It’s also worth mentioning eight of the last 10 races have had the pole sitter finish in the top 9, the lone two that did not being Ryan Preece (underfunded team; led 0 laps that day) and Chris Buescher, who did not qualifying for the pole but was awarded it based on a snake format finish in a Saturday-Sunday doubleheader. He should lead laps and finish towards the front.

Kyle Larson ($9.8k- 4th)

Larson’s 2022 season compared to his championship season last year has been underwhelming to say the least, but despite this, he still is fast a quietly sits fifth in the standings. He is due for a good run and this could be the track to get some momentum going. Last year, he was on track to win the race, but blew a tire entering the final turn, allowing Alex Bowman to steal a win. The second race resulted in a 2nd place finish. All four Hendrick drivers were fast in practice as well. Larson could go overlooked on Sunday, which is why I’m intrigued by his sub-$10k price tag. He’s worth a roster spot, but if you lack confidence in his ability to win, there’s nothing wrong with looking for cheaper options with safer floors. 

William Byron ($9.2k- 18th)

Byron has continued to struggle finding great finishes of late, but Pocono could buck that trend with it being one of his stronger tracks. His 8.2 average finish and 99.0 driver rating here over the last six races put him among the top five in the field. He led at least 13 laps in each of last years races at this track as well. Hendrick is a team you should consider stacking and the latter two offer reasonable price tags for their potential. 

Core:

Kevin Harvick ($9.0k- 24th)

This was never one of Harvick’s best tracks, but he has been arguably the best non-Joe Gibbs driver in the last six races with five top 10s and the third best driver rating. He also has more momentum on his side, with five top 10s in the last seven races, but now will need to show more urgency following Christopher Bell’s win last week. Last week’s result now has Harvick on the outside of the playoff picture, despite being 9th in the standings. 68 points is a lot to overcome to catch Martin Truex Jr., so he will need to contend for some wins, which will likely return to a more aggressive style. The concern is his team showed no speed in yesterday’s practice, with all three drivers finishing outside of the top 20. In fact, there was not a single Ford among the top 14. Those results make me weary, but it is a long race to make adjustments and find a way to contend for a top 10. 

Christopher Bell ($8.9k- 11th)

Bell is in a similar boat as Harvick in terms of momentum, but are on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of recent success here. Bell has shown speed here in his four race sample size in Cup, but has not had the ability to stay out of trouble. The fourth place run when he drove the 95 car in 2020 is evident of his potential, but Erik Jones’ three top fours in four races prior to Bell taking over at least shows that this team can compete with the other Joe Gibbs cars, despite being the only car to not win here since 2017. Bell was 5th quickest overall and 2nd in five lap intervals at practice as well. Harvick may have more place differential upside, but Bell likely has the better opportunity to compete towards the front on Sunday, which makes for a nice pivot.

Alex Bowman ($8.1k- 17th)

Bowman, like teammate William Byron, has struggled to put great finishes together of late, having three DNF’s in his last four races. That being said, his recent success at Pocono should turn some things around, as he has three straight top 10 finishes, including a win last year. Bowman was 2nd overall in practice yesterday, which should be enough speed to have him moving forward on Sunday. He is a sneaky consideration for a top 5 finish, which is a bargain at this price tag.

Value:

Austin Cindric ($7.2k- 20th)

Cindric has put together a strong run of good finishes with six straight of 13th or better, including four top 7 finishes. Pocono is a track that is fairly straightforward and does not put rookies at a disadvantage either. He won last year’s Xfinity race here and led at least one lap in all four of his races at the track. While Logano and Blaney struggled to show top 20 speed in practice, Cindric ran as well as 13th and has the worst starting spot among the trio. With a lack of great cheap options this week, you might as well go with the hottest driver in this price range. 

Michael McDowell ($6.5k- 25th)

McDowell finally fell down to Earth last week with a disappointing 28th place finish, but that does not take away from the fact that he has enjoyed finishes of 18th or better in 10 of his last 12 races. At Pocono, he has top 20s in six of his last nine races, including one top 10 in 2020. At practice, he ranked 17th in overall speed as well. He’s not a sexy pick, but he is the lone driver $6.5k or lower that ran top 20 in practice. He’s safe and has some momentum going, just roll with it!