This week, NASCAR makes it’s way to another road course in Indianapolis. This track made it’s unpopular debut in 2021, replacing the historical Brickyard 400, however last year’s inaugural finish was anything but uneventful. In one of the turns, part of the curb broke, wiping out five drivers. After an extensive red flag to fix it, Austin Dillon and Michael McDowell wrecked in overtime due to the same curb issue. In double overtime, Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe were duking it out with two to go, only for the latter to make an illegal move into the grass, resulting in a penalty. Prior to serving the penalty, he spun out leader Denny Hamlin, relinquishing the lead to eventual winner A.J. Allmendinger. If there is any representation of how wild the finish was, Ryan Newman was one lap down in 34th with 5 laps to go and wound up finishing 10th. This time around, there should be less controversy surrounding the track, however that does not mean we won’t be in store for a wild finish. With only 82 laps, there is just 57.4 dominator points to pass around. Place differential is king, and there is a ton of it in this lineup. Let’s break down  those worth rostering for today’s race.

Locks:

A.J. Allmendinger ($8.2k- 20th)

Allmendinger’s sub par luck as a part-timer in road courses has dropped his price tag way too low for this week. Despite driving for an underfunded team, he is always a strong consideration for a top 10 at these tracks. Most recently, he drove to a 9th place finish with a car he hated and as a reminder, was contending for the win on the last lap at COTA prior to wrecking out. He won last year’s wild race and won the Xfinity race yesterday while leading 42 of 62 laps. He was also 2nd overall in practice in Cup and 5th in 5 lap intervals. Don’t overthink it.

Dominators

Chase Elliott ($10.6k- 8th)

Elliott may not have a win at a road course in 2022, but the points leader has still looked strong, with a 4.67 average finish and most recently finishing 2nd at Road America with the most fast laps and laps led. Last year at Indy, Hendrick dominated the race and while Larson had the stronger car, Elliott still led 14 laps and had the 2nd best driver rating, leading to a 4th place finish. Elliott is as safe as it gets at these tracks and his starting spot actually gives some place differential. The only reason he is not considered a lock are the two strong road racers behind him with sub par starting spots. From a fantasy perspective, rostering both of those guys, there is an avenue for each to score higher than Elliott. I will likely look to roster two of the three and you should be happy with the results, regardless. 

Ross Chastain ($10.4k- 21st)

Chastain finds himself with a great potential for place differential this weekend. He is one of three drivers to finish in the top 10 in all three road course races this season, but is the only one amongst that group to record a win (COTA). He was 9th overall in practice and 17th in 5 lap intervals. Chastain should find his way into the top 10 and run there throughout the day, should he not run into any issues. 

Kyle Larson ($10.2k- 22nd)

Larson has been very strong recently at road courses, with three wins since 2019, most behind his teammate Chase Elliott. Last year, he had the best driver rating (127.7) and led the most laps (28), resulting in a respectable 3rd place finish. He most recently finished 3rd at Road America and won stage 1 at Sonoma before being permanently shuffled out of the lead. Yesterday at practice, he was 7th overall and 4th in 5 lap intervals. He has a top 5-caliber car with a starting spot outside of the top 20. That recipe is too good to pass up.

Daniel Suarez ($9.4k- 11th)

I have never seen Suarez priced this high, but his recent results have the bump completely justified. He followed up his first career win at Sonoma with a 5th place effort at Road America. Trackhouse has been the best team overall at Road Courses thus far and it’s worth continuing to invest in the team until they show otherwise. 

Core

Kevin Harvick ($8.4k- 18th)

Harvick has been optimal in each of the last two road course races and it is very possible that trend could continue this week as well. At Sonoma he finished 4th after starting 23rd and at Road America he finished 10th after starting 28th. If you want another sample, he finished 11th at COTA after starting 18th. Last year, he started 25th at Indy and finished 14th. Do you see a trend? The dude does exactly what you need at these types of tracks and you do not have to break the bank to roster him. He was also 8th in 5 lap intervals yesterday, showing he has the potential for a top 10 car. 

Alex Bowman ($7.8k- 28th)

Bowman has had a terrible recent stretch of races, finishing outside of the top 10 in seven straight. He needs a good finish and this is the exact track that could help turn that luck around. This season, he has been extremely formidable at road courses, with an average finish of 10.0, including a 2nd place finish at COTA. With this terrible starting spot, he has plenty of opportunity to gain positions. He may not have a top 10 car, but it’s plausible for him to flirt with a top 15 today, which could score roughly 40-45 FPTS. That’s intriguing enough to take a look this week. He also finished 2nd yesterday in the Xfinity series

Chris Buescher ($7.5k- 16th)

Buescher, believe it or not, has been a top five road course racer in the last two races. At Sonoma, he never left the top 5 and finished in 2nd. At Road America, he ran up front all day and came away with a 6th place finish. Next to no one gave him a look though due to his high starting positions in each race. This week, he finally starts outside of the top 15, however still had strong practice times of 5th overall and 6th in 5 lap intervals. His teammate Brad Keselowski duplicated those strong results, showing the team has some speed this weekend. You usually do not find a top 10 contender this cheap, but Buescher will definitely have the potential to pay off for you this weekend.

Erik Jones ($7100- 35th)

This is primarily an example of going with a driver solely based off of place differential potential and not how he looked in practice. Jones was terrible yesterday, running 28th overall and failing to run a 5 lap interval. Last year, he did not have a top 25 driver rating, but avoided the chaos and salvaged a 7th place finish out of the day. This season he has struggled with finishes of 22nd and 26th at the previous two road course races, however he was optimal at COTA, finishing 9th after starting 30th. That single race alone just shows the potential he has if he can find his was into the top 20. That is a reasonable expectation with at least 38 FPTS if he can accomplish that feat. 

Sleepers

Austin Dillon ($6.7k- 29th)

Dillon has quietly had a solid season regarding this track type. He finished 10th at COTA, 11th at Sonoma and was running 15th with four laps to go at Road America prior cutting a tire. In practice, he was 19th overall and 10th in 5 lap intervals. Last year, he was running 14th in overtime prior to a crash with Michael McDowell.  Compared to Erik Jones, he has a better opportunity to have a top 15 finish, but with a slightly better starting position. He’s a solid pivot and will save some salary to spend elsewhere.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6.1k- 38th)

A full time driver starting last is always worth rostering when looking to fill out your lineup. Stenhouse was 22nd overall in practice but essentially did not run a qualifying lap yesterday. He has not had great finishes at any road course this season, however his most recent 19th place finish at Road America garnered 38 FPTS due to his low starting position. He should be one of the more popular drivers this weekend and has the easiest path towards a strong fantasy day at this price range. 

Joey Hand ($5.7k- 27th)

A low-owned pivot worth mentioning is the part-timer Joey Hand, who only runs on the road course circuits. This year, he has finished 20th and 21st in the previous two races and was running 19th at COTA with 9 laps to go prior to his suspension failing. He has the talent to finish in the top 20, but his equipment does not match his talents. If his car can stay in tact, he can flirt with a 30 FPT day.