*Record in parentheses indicates record within the division*
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers
2020 Record/Season Result: 12-4 / AFC North Champs / Lost Wild Card vs CLE 48-37
2021 Prediction: 9-8 (3-3) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 6 vs SEA (SNF), Week 8 @ CLE, Week 15 vs TEN, Week 17 vs CLE (MNF), Week 18 @ BAL
The Steelers enter 2021 as a bit of an unknown following a lackluster ending to their season last year. After starting the year 11-0, the last remaining unbeaten team went on to lose five of their last six, including a trouncing at home against the division rival Browns. It is difficult to imagine Pittsburgh returning to mediocrity considering they have not posted a losing record since Head Coach Mike Tomlin took over in 2007, however they underwent a massive overhaul in the offseason along the offensive line and will be expecting four new starters, a unit that ranks 31st entering 2021, according to PFF. Even with the addition of 1st round pick Najee Harris, it does not inspire confidence they will be able to move the ball on a consistent basis after appearing quite stagnant in the latter part of last year. One strength that will be guaranteed will be Pittsburgh’s ability to get to the QB. Led by 2020 sacks leader T.J. Watt, the Steelers have led the NFL in sacks in every year since 2017. Swapping Bud Dupree for veteran Melvin Ingram and returning eight starters will keep a stout defensive unit among the NFL’s best. In what could very well be Big Ben Roethlisberger’s swan song, the Steelers have enough talent to remain competitive, however a brutal ending to their schedule that consists of Minnesota, Tennessee, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Baltimore twice will make or break their season. While the AFC North is capable of repeating three playoff contenders, I would put Pittsburgh behind both Cleveland and Baltimore and on the outside looking in on a potential wild card berth.
Baltimore Ravens
2020 Record/Season Result: 11-5 / Lost Div. Round @ BUF 17-3
2021 Prediction: 11-6 (3-3) / #5 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 2 vs KC (SNF), Week 5 vs IND (MNF), Week 14 @ CLE, Week 17 vs LAR, Week 18 vs PIT
2020 was a season that was supposed to end up at the very least an AFC Championship appearance after an NFL-best 14-2 the year prior, however a COVID-19 outbreak hit the team midseason, including their quarterback Lamar Jackson, resulting in losing four of their next five, a deficit too much to overcome after Pittsburgh’s hot start to begin the year. Nevertheless, Baltimore managed to end the regular season on a five game win streak and also upset the Titans, avenging their divisional round exit in 2019. Leading into the new year, the one thing that remains is the Ravens having one of the best overall rosters, which should result in being one of the few contenders to potentially dethrone Kansas City’s two consecutive years representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. Since Lamar Jackson took over as a starter in November of 2018, no NFL team, aside from Kansas City, has been more consistent as a contender. Jackson’s 75.6% win percentage ranks 3rd among all active NFL quarterbacks behind Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Lamar’s lackluster ending to the year after being knocked out of the game in the second half against Buffalo should motivate the 2019 MVP to show up and show out against the NFL’s elite come January. The Ravens’ 32nd ranked passing attack should be more of a threat following the additions of 1st round pick Rashod Bateman and veteran Sammy Watkins. The Ravens also did a fine job masking the departure of Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Brown Jr. after the additions of veterans Kevin Zeitler and Alejandro Villanueva. Gus Edwards, however, will be asked to step into a massive role as the lead back following the offseason departure of Mark Ingram and season-ending injury to J.K. Dobbins in the final preseason game. The defense still possesses a top three secondary unit, where the dynamic duo of Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters were the only pair of teammates to be graded among the Top 10 cornerbacks in 2020. They will be looking for a major leap of improvement from linebacker Patrick Queen after the 2020 rookie finished the year 82nd out of 83 qualifying linebackers (29.7), including being one of the bottom three against the run and the pass. Baltimore should enjoy a strong start to the year, however the season will get very interesting after their Week 8 bye. Starting on a short week, they will begin a stretch of five road games in seven weeks in November and December. Their only home games in the second half of the season will include Minnesota, Cleveland, Green Bay, the LA Rams, and Pittsburgh. There will be no gimmes in the back half of the season, which will likely lead to a tough road to regaining the division crown. A strong run game and defense should allow them to weather the storm and stay within the top seven in the AFC come playoff time.
Cleveland Browns
2020 Record: Season Result: 11-5 / Lost Div. Round @ KC 22-17
2021 Prediction: 12-5 (4-2) / #2 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 1 @ KC, Week 8 vs PIT, Week 10 @ NE, Week 14 vs BAL, Week 16 @ GB (Christmas)
The Browns enter 2021 with expectations seemingly for the first time since the Bernie Kosar days in the late 1980s. 2020 Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski thrived in his first season in Cleveland, leading the team to their first playoff victory since 1994 after blowing out the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round before a tough loss in Kansas City. Following additions of quality veterans Jadeveon Clowney and John Johnson III, Cleveland enters the year with perhaps the best overall roster from top to bottom in the NFL. The Browns return an intact offensive line that finished 2020 number one in the according to PFF, to pair with the NFL’s top running back duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who combined for 2,362 all-purpose yards and 23 touchdowns last season. Odell Beckham Jr. will also return following a torn ACL, leading to an embarrassment of riches on the offensive side of the ball, should Baker Mayfield continue to progress entering year four. The season starts where it ended last season with a high profile matchup against the Chiefs. In a season that includes just six games against 2020 playoff teams, four of which are against fellow division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, record will not be the pressing factor in determining the success of this team’s season, but rather how consistently competitive Cleveland can remain against those tough opponents. Barring an extreme case of injuries, the Browns should be considered the front runners for their first division title since joining the AFC North in 2002, as well as being one of Kansas City’s biggest threats to three-peating as conference champions.
Cincinnati Bengals
2020 Record/Season Result: 4-11-1 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 6-11 (2-4) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 4 vs JAX (TNF), Week 7 @ BAL, Week 9 vs CLE, Week 12 vs PIT, Week 15 @ DEN
The Bengals will look to continue and make strides in their rebuild following a four win campaign that saw rookie quarterback Joe Burrow have a ton of individual success before a knee injury ended his year prematurely. He has made a full return and will be available for their season opener. A big improvement will be needed from the offensive line in order for Burrow to stay upright after he was sacked 32 times, which was second-worst during the first 11 weeks. Cincinnati took a gamble in the draft, passing on quality first round prospects to reunite the quarterback with his fellow National Champion teammate Ja’Marr Chase. The rookie had a rough first training camp and preseason with drops and while a few games will not define his career, it has not inspired optimism that the Bengals will continue to improve in 2021. Fortunately, wide receivers Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and running back Joe Mixon give Cincinnati enough firepower to remain competitive in most games this year. The defensive line exchanged a pair of breakout edge rushers from 2020 after allowing Carl Lawson, who led the NFL in quarterback knockdowns (26), for Trey Hendrickson, who finished tied for the second-most sacks (13.5). It remains to be seen whether Hendrickson can come remotely close to repeating that production, but what can be said is the return of defensive tackle D.J. Reader will be a big boost to a defense that allowed 148.0 rushing yards per game (29th) last season. Their secondary is probably their strongest overall unit, containing quality veterans Chidobe Awuzie and Trae Waynes on the outside while Mike Hilton, a former Steeler, mans the slot. The unit is anchored by safety Jessie Bates, a 2020 second-team All-Pro and one of only two defensive backs in the NFL that graded out above a 90 last season (90.1). It is difficult to look at Cincinnati’s 2021 outlook and have optimism of playoff contention, however that is the route Head Coach Zac Taylor and company will need to have that kind of success in order to be back for the 2022 season. Otherwise, the Cincinnati job could be one of the hottest vacancies on the market as soon as the offseason begins.
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans
2020 Record/Season Result: 11-5 / AFC South Champs / Lost Wild Card vs BAL 20-13
2021 Prediction: 10-7 (3-3) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 3 vs IND, Week 6 vs BUF (MNF), Week 8 @ IND, Week 15 @ PIT, Week 16 vs SF (TNF)
Tennessee enters 2021 with a strong argument to be one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL, led by back-to-back rushing champion Derrick Henry, who is most recently coming off of the NFL’s eighth 2,000 yard season (2,027 – 5th most in NFL history). Ryan Tannehill should continue his career resurgence as a Titan with his elite running game, as well as his elite wide receiver duo of five-time All-Pro Julio Jones and young star A.J. Brown, who is the only WR in the NFL to obtain a passer rating when targeted above 125.0 in each of the last two seasons. Left Tackle Taylor Lewan will return after missing all but five games last season due to a torn ACL. Coupled with a relatively weak division, the Titans should enjoy an easier path back into the postseason, however it will be on the defense to see how far this season can go. Each level as a unit on the defensive side rank in the bottom half of the NFL, and while the signing of Bud Dupree will produce more in the sack department than Jadeveon Clowney did in 2020, it is still a weak pass rush that might not improve much from their 30th-ranked pass rush (19 sacks). Jeffery Simmons should continue to develop into an elite defensive lineman, however the rest of the unit leaves much to be desired. In the secondary, Tennessee will be asking for big leaps from a few young players after the departure of four key defensive backs, including their top three cornerbacks. Janoris Jenkins should help soften the blow, but this is a defense that will be tough to rely on keeping the team out of shootouts on a weekly basis, even with the pedigree that Head Coach Mike Vrabel brings. The Titans are certain to provide us with several highlights and great football games this year, but it will be tough to keep up in games with other talented AFC teams that will have much more balance on both sides of the ball.
Indianapolis Colts
2020 Record/Season Result: 11-5 / Lost Wild Card @ BUF 27-24
2021 Prediction: 11-6 (6-0) / #4 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 3 @ TEN, Week 5 @ BAL (MNF), Week 8 TEN, Week 12 vs TB, Week 15 vs NE
Even with being one of the weirder fits bringing in gunslinger Philip Rivers last year, Indianapolis still managed to have a successful year. Bringing in Carson Wentz might be his best opportunity to return to his 2017 MVP-caliber form with a familiar coach in Frank Reich, an elite offensive line, and a stellar run game. The bad luck bug gave the Colts quite the scare as training camp started, beginning with Carson Wentz and All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson suffering foot fractures that, while on the surface not seeming serious, cost both invaluable practice time. Tackle Eric Fisher, former Chief and number one pick, has yet to receive clearance to return and potentially replace the recently retired Anthony Castonzo on the blindside and long-time wide receiver T.Y. Hilton will miss time to start the year due to a neck injury. That is not the ideal situation for a team that will begin the year facing five consecutive playoff-caliber opponents, including three straight road games. Second year pros Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman should be capable of shouldering the load with their offensive production, but they will need their defense to continue stifling opponents to weather the storm during the first half of the year. Still with all the uncertainty, this still is the making of a team that could become dangerous and hot at the right time to become a team no one would want to face come January. Ending the year with a late Week 14 bye, followed by four very winnable games against 2020 non-playoff teams, Tennessee will need to keep their foot on the gas if they do not want to be caught within the division. Wentz’s return to the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks is essential for this team to build on 2020, however they must overcome a bunch of early season adversity to do so.
Houston Texans
2020 Record/Season Result: 4-12 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 1-16 (0-6) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 1 vs JAX, Week 3 vs CAR, Week 12 vs NYJ, Week 15 @ JAX, Week 18 vs TEN
The unprecedented collapse of Houston from a playoff contender up 24-0 on the road in the playoffs against eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City to 19 months later entering the 2021 season with the NFL’s worst projected record is baffling to say the least. From overspending on very good-but-not-great tackle Laremy Tunsil, to one of the worst modern era trades of superstar wideout DeAndre Hopkins, to burning bridges and forcing a top five quarterback talent in Deshaun Waston to request a trade (pre-legal issues) is an unheard of situation for an organization that that was filled with potential to rival the Chiefs as the team to usurp the two decade run the Patriots had atop the AFC. With that being said, there is not much to be optimistic about. A team filled with zero star power does not have much opportunity to do anything other than vie for the top pick in the 2022 draft. Uncertainty regarding Deshaun Watson’s situation makes it difficult to predict what his future in the NFL holds, however one thing that is all but certain is his tenure as a member of the Texans being over. The situation makes it difficult for guys like Head Coach David Culley and quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who deserve much better than being tied to this tire fire. General Manager Nick Caserio has a multiyear project in front of him that will require massive patience, a ton of maneuvering, and a lot of luck to turn this back into a respectable organization. Houston fans will be in for massive growing pains this year, as this team has the making of one that may flirt with becoming the NFL’s third winless team since 1983.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2020 Record/Season Result: 1-15 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 5-12 (3-3) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 4 @ CIN (TNF), Week 5 vs TEN, Week 6 vs MIA (London), Week 10 @ IND, Week 14 @ TEN
Had the New York Jets not won consecutive games in Weeks 15 and 16, the Jaguars would have missed out on the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes and, in turn, entered 2021 with possibly the NFL’s worst roster (including the uber dysfunctional Texans). Even with their golden goose at quarterback, Jacksonville does not install much confidence that this team will have a massive turnaround, at least this year. The offensive line leaves much to be desired, and outside of Josh Allen (no, the edge rusher) and C.J. Henderson, who have enjoyed sub-par starts to their respective careers, Jacksonville possesses a defense that most teams will likely take advantage of in 2021. Even with the overall talent deficiency, we have seen several teams in recent years exceed expectations due to scrappy play and overachievement from several developing young talents (see Miami tanking for Tua). Trevor Lawrence and Head Coach Urban Meyer are far from their dominant days in the college ranks and will face growing pains and an uphill battle for the first time in their careers. That being said, there are several winnable games and opportunities to take admirable steps in their rookie NFL seasons, starting with a depleted Houston Texans team opening week. The playoffs should not be an expectation, but rather a farfetched luxury. Staying remotely competitive on a weekly basis will go a long way in developing a culture that the Jaguars can build on for years to come. A positive finish to the year, as well as a strong 2022 offseason could very well place Jacksonville as a dark horse playoff threat next season. As for now, I don’t expect to see Jacksonville exceeding their projected six game win total as we approach kickoff.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
2020 Record/Season Result: 13-3 / AFC East Champs / Lost AFC Championship @ KC 38-24
2021 Prediction: 12-5 (5-1) / #3 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 5 @ KC (SNF), Week 6 @ TEN (MNF), Week 12 vs IND, Week 14 @ TB, Week 16 @ NE
The Bills followed a strong 2019 season with an even bigger leap in 2020, winning the AFC East for the first time in 25 years and first AFC Championship appearance since their most recent Super Bowl appearance in 1993. Quarterback Josh Allen continued his excellent progression into an elite quarterback and after earning a second team All-Pro nod, he locked up an extension that will keep him as Buffalo’s signal-caller through 2028. 2020 receptions and receiving yards leader Stefon Diggs had his way with defensive backs in his first season with the Bills and should continue to thrive as the number one option in that offense. Their running back situation leaves much to be desired, as the pair of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary combined for just six touchdowns with neither averaging more than 43.0 yards on the ground last season. The lack of production stood out even more in the postseason after the duo rushed for just 84 yards and no scores over three games. The rushing attack will need to see a major improvement in order to not become too reliant on Allen’s legs as he enters the prime of his young career. Defensively the Bills do not possess much star power, per say, however they are deep on all three levels which should lead to being one of the top 10 units in football. Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are one of the best safety duos after each finish among the top 25 safeties in 2020 according to PFF, while Tre’Davious White remains one of the top 10 cornerbacks in football. Their pass rush is young, but deep after the additions of rookies Gregory Rousseau and Boogie Basham with their first two picks in the 2021 draft. The pressure will be on third year pro Ed Oliver to make huge improvements and live up to his top 10 billing after grading out as the worst starting interior defender in the NFL against the run (30.0). Despite a schedule littered with potential playoff previews against the likes of Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Indianapolis, the Bills should remain the team to beat in the AFC East. Even with Miami and an improved New England nipping on their heels, Buffalo remains the only team with a reliable quarterback presence to lean on as the year unfolds.
Miami Dolphins
2020 Record/Season Result: 10-6 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 8-9 (2-4) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 1 @ NE, Week 4 vs IND, Week 8 @ BUF, Week 10 vs BAL (TNF), Week 17 @ TEN
Huge kudos to Head Coach Brian Flores for establishing a quick culture change a year following several roster moves that gutted the roster that essentially gave the team an opportunity to ‘Tank For Tua’. 10 wins was a pleasant surprise for the Dolphins, eight of which were by at least double digits, tied for second-most in the NFL. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will now take over the reins as the full-time starter following a split season with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins added a few electrifying pass catchers in the offseason with rookie Jaylen Waddle and great-but-fragile deep threat Will Fuller V to pair with DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki to make up one of the most intriguing skill groups in the NFL. The offensive line is extremely young and raw, with only Robert Hunt, who will be moving to guard, being the only starter to ever finish a season with a PFF grade above 62 in his career. Benardrick McKinney was brought in via trade to man the middle of a relatively weak front seven, but being one of the final roster cuts signals the scrappy young core could struggle with a lack of veteran leadership as the year goes on. Even with Byron Jones and 2020 interceptions leader Xavien Howard providing an elite cornerback tandem on the backend, Miami was all over the board defending the pass last season, tying for the most interceptions (18) and allowing the second-fewest passing touchdowns (21 – T-2nd), but also gave up several big plays, resulting in the second-most yards per attempt for opposing quarterbacks (8.0). It is difficult to assess whether Miami can build on a strong 2020 and sneak into the playoffs, but much of their postseason potential will be predicated on Tua’s development. Even in just year two, we have seen the pressure among recent young quarterbacks to succeed early. If the former Heisman winner struggles to win games in 2021, we may see a move of epic proportions depending on how the Deshaun Watson legal situation plays out.
New England Patriots
2020 Record/Season Result: 7-9 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 10-7 (4-2) / #6 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 1 vs MIA, Week 4 vs TB, Week 10 vs CLE, Week 15 @ IND, Week 16 vs BUF
2020 was a season of transition for the Patriots in their first season of Tom Brady-less football in over 20 years. Despite having the most COVID opt-outs and a painfully strange offensive fit with Cam Newton at quarterback, New England still managed to be a competitive 7-9. Bill Belichick and company started out the offseason extremely aggressive, spending a whopping $268 million on several key free agents to strengthen both sides of the ball. In addition, the Patriots just made one of the most shocking decisions after the preseason to cut the veteran quarterback Newton in favor of first round rookie Mac Jones. Regardless of opting for a rookie under center, New England should be much improved and back vying for postseason contention. The run game will be heavily relied upon, which could lead to a breakout year for running back Damien Harris, who was one of only two running backs in the NFL to grade out as a top 5 runner and pass blocker in 2020. He will run behind a top three offensive line that includes three players who finished with a PFF grade of 82 or higher last season. The duo of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith should also provide a facelift to the tight end position that combined for a league-low 19 receptions in 2020. Even with 2019 defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore beginning the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list, their secondary is littered with young pieces that will make up for his lost production, including J.C. Jackson, who broke out with nine interceptions in 2020. The schedule is very manageable as well, with just two road games against 2020 playoff teams, both of which straddle their Week 14 bye. New England should be one of the safest bets for improvement this season, and could become one of the toughest teams to gauge once playoff season rolls around.
New York Jets
2020 Record/Season Result: 2-14 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 3-14 (1-5) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 1 @ CAR, Week 8 vs CIN, Week 11 vs MIA, Week 13 vs PHI, Week 16 vs JAX
Ironically, the only good thing to come out of last year for an organization that has lost more games than any NFL team since 2016 (57), was it’s two victories against playoff teams after an 0-13 start, ultimately costing the organization an opportunity at the number one pick and a generational talent in Trevor Lawrence. In what is considered one of the best quarterback classes of this century, the Jets took a massive gamble, opting for Zach Wilson over guys like Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones, all of which had substantial collegiate success and have received major hype throughout training camp and preseason thus far. While the BYU product has also shown occasional flashes thus far, he is easily in for the most difficult of paths to success compared to his classmates. Even with Head Coach Robert Salah coming over from San Francisco, fans will have to be patient with this multi-year rebuild project. The offense is much improved compared to the mess Sam Darnold was forced to put up with in recent years thanks to additions of Corey Davis and Tevin Coleman via free agency and Elijah Moore and Alijah Vera-Tucker in the draft, which should result in an improvement in their league-worst 15.2 points per game in 2020. The front seven defensively is the strength of this team, but it has dealt with some major blows after losing free agent pass rusher Carl Lawson (Achilles) for the season, while Jarrad Davis will also miss several weeks to start the year (Ankle). Four-time Pro Bowl linebacker C.J. Mosely will return after opting out due to COVID last year, but he has only played in two games since signing his big contract in the 2019 offseason, so it is a huge unknown if he will be able to return to form. Defensive lineman Quinnen Williams and safety Marcus Maye are Pro Bowl-caliber players who both finished among the top 12 in their respective positions last year as well. The talent accumulated in recent years is promising, but there is a long way to go for New York to compete on a weekly basis. Winning the majority of games against similar caliber opponents, while upsetting a few playoff teams along the way will go a long way in determining the Jets’ outlook when it comes to 2022. Still, I would expect to be holding a top 10 pick come next April.
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs
2020 Record/Season Result: 14-2 / AFC West Champs / Lost Super Bowl LV vs TB 31-9
2021 Prediction: 14-3 (4-2) / #1 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 2 @ BAL (SNF). Week 5 vs BUF, Week 7 @ TEN, Week 9 vs GB, Week 15 @ LAC (TNF)
Kansas City remains the team to beat in the AFC following back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, even despite being throttled by the Buccaneers last time we saw them. Head Coach Andy Reid remains the NFL’s top offensive innovator, and Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill each have respective claims to be the top dog among their positions. One thing that is certain is the Chiefs will be nearly unstoppable offensively and will be able to put up points at will. Second year running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and wide receiver Mecole Hardman should step into bigger roles as complementary pieces as well. The Chiefs did a fantastic job addressing the offensive line, bringing in several impact players and depth in the draft and free agency. Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, and Lucas Niang all are projected starters that will be playing in their first career game come Week 1, but have all received high praise that they will step right in and be successful early on. The Chiefs also brought in Joe Thuney, who has been a criminally underrated guard for the Patriots for the last few years, and traded for Orlando Brown Jr., who will switch to cover the blindside after becoming a Pro Bowler in each of the last two years. Defensively, there are several holes throughout, but they are anchored by All-Pros Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu, providing some stability in the pass rush and coverage departments. A killer start to the year includes five of their first seven opponents, however Kansas City knows how to get off to hot starts under Andy Reid, where they have only lost one game in September since 2016, en route to five straight AFC West titles. Barring injury, even in a competitive AFC, the road to SoFi Stadium in February should run through Kansas City.
Las Vegas Raiders
2020 Record/Season Result: 8-8 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 5-12 (1-5) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 3 vs MIA, Week 4 @ LAC (MNF), Week 11 vs CIN, Week 16 vs DEN, Week 17 @ IND
The Raiders have improved record-wise in each of the last two seasons under Gruden’s second stint with the team, however it could be a tall task ahead of them to finish with a winning record and potential playoff spot following another offseason of questionable moves. They parted ways with three of their top four lineman in Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson, and Trent Brown, who combined to allow just one sack last season. Though left tackle Kolton Miller finally made strides as a pass blocker (81.0 – 15th among tackles), the rest of the line is made up of uninspiring starters and 2021 first round pick Alex Leatherwood, who was considered by many to be the biggest reach of the draft. In terms of their skill group, outside of Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller, the Raiders will enter the year with plenty of unproven talent at the receiver position, including Henry Ruggs III, who struggled as a rookie after being drafted ahead of guys like Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson. Even with two solid running backs in Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake, neither averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry last season, while rating as below average as pass catchers and blockers. It is all an unfair situation to overcome yet again for quarterback Derek Carr, who is one of six players to finish with a passer rating over 100 in each of the last two seasons. Defensively, Las Vegas did bring in several quality veteran players with hopes to improve a unit that surrendered 29.9 points per game last year. Gerald McCoy, K.J. Wright, Casey Hayward, and Yannick Ngakoue likely won’t be impact players like they once were, but they will at least provide leadership and consistency throughout each level as they adjust to new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s new system. This will also be make or break years for defensive end Clelin Ferrell and safety Johnathan Abram, neither of which have lived up to their 2019 first round billing. Las Vegas’ 2021 schedule also is one of the toughest in the NFL, with next to no gimme wins throughout the schedule, including a gauntlet with Washington, Kansas City, Cleveland, Denver, Indianapolis, and the LA Chargers to finish the year. Considering all three divisional foes got substantially better this offseason, while the Raiders stayed rather stagnant with their overall roster, I would expect a return to the bottom of a very competitive division, with Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock firmly on the hot seat going into next offseason, if they are even able to make it through the year at all.
Los Angeles Chargers
2020 Record/Season Result: 7-9 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 10-7 (3-3-) / #7 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 4 vs LV (MNF), Week 8 vs NE, Week 11 vs PIT (SNF), Week 15 vs KC (TNF), Week 17 vs DEN
The Chargers finished 2020 strong with four straight wins to end the year, which has led to one of the biggest hype trains for a dark horse playoff team entering 2021. Quarterback Justin Herbert took the starting job in Week 2 and never looked back, finishing with 289.1 passing yards per game (4th) and an NFL rookie-record 31 passing touchdowns. Four-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen and former first round pick Mike Williams, who is in a contract year, should continue providing reliable weapons on the outside, while veteran tight end Jared Cook and running back Austin Ekeler will provide reliable hands underneath as well. A huge area the Chargers needed to address in the offseason was their 32nd-ranked offensive line from a year ago, and they did just that, bringing in Corey Linsley, the top rated center in the NFL in 2020 (86.4) and drafting what some thought was the best offensive lineman in the NFL draft in Rashawn Slater this past April. Those moves will not vault the unit into the top 10 immediately, but it will be a huge improvement to protect the young Justin Herbert and avoid a potential Cincinnati-like situation. While Joey Bosa can be considered the best player on their defense, their overall success will be predicated on the health of safety Derwin James, who has not played since October of 2019 due to multiple season-ending injuries. He is a playmaker in all facets and, when last healthy, was a first-team All-Pro as a rookie. Veteran Chris Harris Jr. will also return after missing seven games last season to provide stability on the back end. 2020 draft picks Kenneth Murray and Nassir Adderly should also take big steps into bigger roles entering their sophomore seasons. The opportunity is there for the Chargers to have another strong finish to the season, as the only post-Thanksgiving matchup against a 2020 playoff team is a home matchup against Kansas City on a short week. Unless we see a regression from Justin Herbert, Los Angeles should be in contention for a postseason appearance as a Wild Card team in Brandon Staley’s first year as Head Coach.
Denver Broncos
2020 Record/Season Result: 5-11 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 9-8 (4-2) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 4 vs BAL, Week 5 @ PIT, Week 7 @ CLE (TNF), Week 12 vs LAC, Week 17 @ LAC
The Broncos will attempt to get back into relevance after five consecutive seasons of missing the playoffs since their Super Bowl 50 victory. The quarterback carousel continues to go around, as Denver will begin their fifth straight year with a different starting quarterback after Teddy Bridgewater, who was acquired in the offseason, beat out last year’s starter Drew Lock. Whether or not that is an upgrade remains to be seen, but one thing that should improve is protecting the football after Denver finished with a league-worst -16 turnover-differential last season. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton will return (ACL) after missing all of 2020 to join Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and tight end Noah Fant as one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. Veteran Melvin Gordon III and rookie Javonte Williams should also provide a formidable rushing attack to massively improve their 20.2 points per game (28th) last season. Defensively, this could be their best unit since their Super Bowl run as well, especially with the return of seven-time All-Pro Von Miller (ankle). Pairing him with Bradley Chubb will provide the Broncos with multiple guys capable of securing double digit sacks. The secondary ranks atop the NFL after an offseason of quality additions. Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller, and Bryce Callahan combine for over 200 starts between the trio, while Patrick Surtain II, the top ranked corner of the 2021 draft class, has already gotten off to a hot start with the team. Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons could also be arguably the NFL’s top safety duo after each finished the last two seasons as a top 10 safety, according to PFF. Denver’s schedule is very favorable as well, opening the year with games against the rebuilding Giants, Jaguars, and Jets. Aside from a pair of games against the Chiefs, the Broncos do not face another playoff team from 2020 after Week 8. The roster and schedule is in their favor to become a playoff-caliber team once again, so long as the quarterback situation can be relied upon much more consistently than in recent years.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers
2020 Record/Season Result: 13-3 / NFC North Champs / Lost NFC Championship vs TB 31-26
2021 Prediction: 11-6 (5-1) / #3 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 3 @ SF (SNF), Week 8 @ ARI (TNF), Week 9 @ KC, Week 12 vs LAR, Week 17 vs MIN (SNF)
No team’s 2021 season was in greater flux throughout the offseason more than the Packers due to the fractured relationship between the organization and longtime franchise quarterback and 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers. After a compromise was seemingly met, Rodgers will be back in the fold in what looks to be his final season in Green Bay.
Despite the drama, it is hard to not imagine the Packers being one of the top contenders in the NFC after back-to-back NFC Championship appearances. The roster remains deep with talent after they had a league-high six players finish among the top two in their positions, with Aaron Rodgers (95.1), Davante Adams (92.0) and Jaire Alexander (90.1) each finishing at the top. The offensive line could see a regression after losing Corey Linsley to free agency, while David Bahktiari (ACL) will miss at least the first six games after being placed on the PUP list. The number one scoring offense (31.8 points per game) will return most of its core skill players led by Davante Adams’ shifty route running and Aaron Jones’ dual threat ability out of the backfield. Randall Cobb returns to Green Bay after a two-year hiatus, but will likely take on a smaller role with Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan coming into their own as receiving threats.
The defensive front remains solid, with the reliable Kenny Clark manning the middle, while Za’Darius Smith, who has accumulated 25 sacks in two seasons with the Packers, lines up as the premier edge rusher. The help on the opposite side will need to become more consistent, however, as no one other than Smith managed to sack the quarterback more than five times last season. Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos are an elite safety tandem, who were able to combine for eight takeaways and 158 tackles in 2020. Jaire Alexander still remains on a short list of best corners in the NFL, but they will need massive improvement from the other side of the field after Kevin King and company struggled immensely throughout the latter part of the year and playoffs.
Green Bay’s schedule is not necessarily forgiving, which will likely lead to a regression from their two straight seasons with a 13-3 record, however without a true contender within their division, the Packers should be one of the top seeds once again in a NFC conference filled with unknowns. Whether or not they will be able to finally get over the hump remains to be seen, though.
Chicago Bears
2020 Record/Season Result: 8-8 / Lost Wild Card @ NO 21-9
2021 Prediction: 7-10 (2-4) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 4 vs DET, Week 6 vs GB, Week 8 vs SF, Week 13 vs ARI, Week 15 vs MIN (MNF)
Kudos to the Bears for refusing to stay complacent after back-to-back 8-8 seasons, moving off former top three pick Mitch Trubisky and into a new direction at quarterback. After bringing in veteran Andy Dalton to temporarily fill the void and compete with Nick Foles, Chicago was very aggressive in the draft, trading two first round picks to move up and draft Justin Fields out of Ohio State.
Dalton was named the starter to begin the year, however one would think that would be only temporary considering the urgency for Head Coach Matt Nagy to win games in order to establish some job security going forward. Wide receiver Allen Robinson II is as steady of a threat as you can ask for on the outside, catching 200 passes over the last two seasons, third most in the NFL in that span. David Montgomery broke out in 2020 due to a thin backfield after Tarik Cohen (ACL) went down early in the year, finishing with 1,508 all-purpose yards (4th) and 10 touchdowns. The offensive line faces a potential regression after the departures of Charles Leno Jr. and Bobby Massie. Second round pick Teven Jenkins will start the year on IR. Elijah Wilkinson and Germain Ifedi will man the tackle spots, but neither have ever posted a PFF grade above 65.0 as a starter. It is not an ideal situation for a rookie quarterback, however Andy Dalton may have even more trouble due to his immobility.
The front seven of the Bears remains the bread and butter of this team, however, led by Khalil Mack, who outside of Aaron Donald, may hold the title of the NFL’s best defensive player, posting a PFF grade north of 86.0 in all seven seasons as a pro. Roquan Smith has finally come into his own as a coverage linebacker as well, but needs to show improvement in his ability to defend the run after finishing with the third-lowest grade of all linebackers that played at least 1,000 snaps (39.8). Eddie Jackson still remains with the team as a solid safety, but Chicago’s secondary could be in for a very rough year, especially after cutting Kyle Fuller in the offseason, and after final roster cuts, parting ways with veteran Desmond Trufant. While second-year pro Jaylon Johnson showed flashes as a rookie, the rest of the secondary is filled with underwhelming talent, who each allowed at least a 70% completion percentage when targeted last season.
This season’s outlook for the Bears will be predicated on how long it takes for Matt Nagy to go with Justin Fields at quarterback. While he may be the better option to have better 2021 success, there are still too many holes on this roster to suggest they will be able to return to the postseason.
Minnesota Vikings
2020 Record/Season Result: 7-9 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 9-8 (4-2) / #7 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 3 vs SEA, Week 8 vs DAL (SNF), Week 11 vs GB, Week 15 @ CHI (MNF), Week 16 vs LAR
The Vikings took a step back last year, finishing with a losing record for the first time in seven seasons, but it was no fault of an offense that was as efficient as could be.
Running back Dalvin Cook enjoyed a career year, finishing with the most all-purpose yards per game in the NFL (137.0) and 17 touchdowns, while rookie sensation Justin Jefferson broke the total receiving yards record (1,400) set 23 years prior by former Viking Randy Moss. Kirk Cousins also enjoyed an efficient year, with a personal-best 35 passing touchdowns and second consecutive season with a passer rating north of 105. That has been their M.O. of late, however. Put up decent numbers. Beat the bad teams. Underwhelm against strong opponents. Rinse and repeat.
In the last three seasons with Cousins at quarterback, the Vikings have a 3-16 record against opponents that finish the season with a winning record. That is not going to get things done if you are Cousins or Head Coach Mike Zimmer, who saw his defensive-minded scheme fall apart in 2020, allowing 29.7 points per game and finishing in the bottom six in the NFL against both the pass and the run. Coming into 2021, PFF ranked their roster ninth among the 32 NFL teams (5th in NFC). The offensive line has undergone a youth movement in the last few years, with the projected starting five having the second-youngest average age (24.73) in the NFL behind the Green Bay Packers.
The trio of Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen should continue to put up numbers offensively, especially after tight end Irv Smith Jr. (meniscus) was lost for the year during the final week of preseason. The subsequent trade for Chris Herndon likely will not make the desired impact after he graded out as both a below average receiver and run blocker as a member of the Jets last year.
The defensive line should see a significant improvement with the returns of Danielle Hunter (neck) and Michael Pierce (COVID opt-out) after the duo each missed the entirety of the 2020 season. Linebacker Anthony Barr will also return after missing all but two games last year to pair with Eric Kendricks, who has been the best coverage linebacker in the NFL over the last few seasons. On the back end, the Vikings brought in a pair of veterans in seven-time Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson and Breshad Breeland to join the always reliable Harrison Smith in order to improve their atrocious play in coverage last season.
Starting the year with a pair of winnable road games and then a stretch that includes just one road game the following seven weeks is the ideal way to get off to a fast start. The post-bye week schedule could be one of the toughest in the NFL however, so it will be imperative that Minnesota get hot early, or else we could see a flameout of epic proportions as the year wanes.
Detroit Lions
2020 Record/Season Result: 5-11 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 5-12 (1-5) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 4 @ CHI, Week 8 vs PHI, Week 13 vs MIN, Week 15 vs ARI, Week 16 @ ATL
Detroit will enter 2021 with probably the fewest expectations of an NFC team. After trading long-time signal caller Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff and multiple first round picks, appearing to hit the reset button in the process.
Head coach Dan Campbell’s “biting kneecaps” mentality may warranted its fair share of jeers, but it is an attitude needed to spark a fire in the organization, who have seen their fair share of irrelevance with only one playoff victory since 1963. Sure, that streak is likely to continue once this season concludes, however I see the looks of a team that could be more competitive than the general public realizes.
The offensive personnel leaves much to be desired, but the Lions actually possess one of the most talented young offensive lines in the NFL. Left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow have each become one of the most underrated players at their respective positions , while first round pick Penei Sewell was hyped up as one of the best tackle prospects in nearly a decade leading up to the draft. The skill group of Tyrell Williams, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, and T.J. Hockenson do not wow you at first glance, but they are all fine players capable of all producing with a former number one overall pick at quarterback in Jared Goff.
Defensively is where Detroit will likely struggle once again, with a severe lack of depth across all three levels. Veterans Trey Flowers, Jamie Collins Sr., and Michael Brockers will all make plays, but it will be on the rest of the inexperienced unit that will need to step up to improve on a defense that allowed the second-most points in NFL history (519) last season. Cornerback Jeffrey Okudah was probably the NFL’s most disappointing rookie last year after being picked third overall, posting the worst coverage grade (30.9) among his position and will need to take a big leap in a secondary inept with quality starting experience.
All in all, Detroit does not have much going for them in terms of a potential playoff push, but they are much better than their 4.5 projected win total suggests. They will be outmatched from a talent perspective on most weeks, but playing the role of playoff spoiler in the back half of the year and finishing with a solid six or seven wins is completely doable in a transition year for the Lions.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints
2020 Record/Season Result: 12-4 / NFC South Champs / Lost Div. Round vs TB 30-20
2021 Prediction: 8-9 (3-3) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 2 @ CAR, Week 7 @ SEA, Week 8 vs TB, Week 13 vs DAL, Week 18 @ ATL
The post-Drew Brees era is officially underway in New Orleans following the anticipated retirement of the 13-time Pro Bowler this offseason. Jameis Winston will now run the show in hopes of establishing himself as the franchise’s quarterback of the future.
The roster has gotten thinner after a few cap casualties and departures, but still has several impact players on both sides of the ball. The offensive line possesses the best tackle tandem in the NFL in Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk, who have each graded out as a top 10 tackle in three of the last four years. Erik McCoy and Cesar Ruiz are also very young talents on the interior line that combined to surrender just one sack last year. The backfield contains the NFL’s premier dual threat running back in Alvin Kamara, who led the league in touchdowns last year (21) in large part due to the record-setting six touchdown performance on Christmas Day against the Vikings.
Michael Thomas, the NFL’s all-time single-season receptions leader (149), will have to wait a while to redeem his injury-plagued 2020 season after landing on the PUP list to start 2021. Without his services to begin the year, the Saints have a severe need for wide receiver production after the departures of veterans Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Jared Cook. Marquez Callaway could become the main beneficiary, after establishing a connection with Jameis Winston and being one of the pleasant surprises of the preseason.
Despite the loss of breakout edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, New Orleans still will field a strong edge duo with Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, the latter of which has grown into a strong defensive talent, but has shown an inability to stay healthy thus far in his young career. Linebacker Demario Davis has been an incredible presence as the mike over the last two seasons, grading out as a top five linebacker in each year. The secondary could be in store for a regression, despite the surprising return of Safety Marcus Williams. Cornerback Marcus Lattimore started his career strong, but has steadily regressed in coverage each of his last four seasons. Ken Crawley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson have been subpar in coverage as well in the last few seasons, which could lead to a fair amount of shootouts this year.
The schedule is manageable, but one must wonder how their home situation will play out, with the Saints beginning the season with home games in Jacksonville after Hurricane Ida hit the state of Louisiana last week. In all likelihood, the Saints will surrender their four year run atop the NFC South, especially with the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers in the fold, but with the rest of the NFC filled with uncertainty, a Wild Card appearance is certainly in the cards for New Orleans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 Record/Season Result: 11-5 / Won Super Bowl LV vs KC 31-9
2021 Prediction: 13-4 (4-2) / #1 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 3 @ LAR, Week 4 @ NE, Week 8 @ NO, Week 12 @ IND, Week 14 vs BUF
Well TB in TB did not take long to pay off, did it? Tom Brady, in his age 43 season defied all odds yet again to lead a franchise without much championship pedigree prior to a Super Bowl victory against the defending champs in a rout.
Tampa Bay doubled down on their intention to run it back, bringing back all 22 starters in an unprecedented move, especially considering the amount of stars that entered free agency and the limited cap space they had entering the offseason. The amount of depth the Buccaneers possess throughout the roster makes it seem as though they should be the favorites to win Super Bowl LVI, but let’s pump the brakes on that preconceived notion for a moment.
The amount of parody in the NFC in recent years has been real, with only one occasion of back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in the last 23 years (Seattle Seahawks; 2013-2014). In the last 15 seasons, Dallas, Washington, and Detroit are the only NFC teams NOT to make a Super Bowl appearance. Still, it is undeniable the Buccaneers should be on a short list of contenders as we begin the year.
Their skill position group is among the league’s best with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and their running back duo of Ronald Jones II and Playoff Lenny providing them with an embarrassment of riches. The offensive line, led by rookie standout Tristan Wirfs finished among the top five offensive lines last season as well. The front seven could arguably be the NFL’s best as well, with five of the seven finishing with a pass rush grade of 70 or higher, while Lavonte David has finished as a top five linebacker in three of the last four seasons according to PFF. The secondary is about league average, but still contains several young starters all capable of making a leap in 2021.
In addition to a division that does not contain any true contenders, Tampa Bay will face one of the easiest NFL schedules as well. There should be no issue with the Bucs finishing with one of the best records in the NFC, but that will not be the goal for this squad. Come playoff time, they will need to avoid complacency with several quality contenders nipping at their heels with attempts to stop Tampa Bay’s quest to become the first repeat Super Bowl champion since the 2004 New England Patriots.
Carolina Panthers
2020 Record/Season Result: 5-11 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 7-10 (3-3) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 1 vs NYJ, Week 6 vs MIN, Week 10 @ ARI, Week 11 vs WAS, Week 17 @ NO
Carolina enters 2021 coming off back-to-back 5-11 seasons, but could ultimately become one of the scrappier teams in the NFL this year.
Boasting the league’s fourth youngest roster, the Panthers enter year two of the Matt Rhule era now with a new young quarterback in Sam Darnold, who was dealt for this offseason. The former Jet will have his fair share of weapons to feed the ball to, including two-time All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey and former teammate Robby Anderson. Their 30th ranked offensive line leaves much to be desired, but overall veterans Matt Paradis and Taylor Moton have shown capabilities of being a top 15 option among their respective positions.
After selecting defensive players with all seven picks in 2020 and Jaycee Horn as the first defensive player off the board, Carolina’s defense is being built as a fast unit capable of producing multiple takeaways. Brian Burns made a huge leap in year two, finishing as a top five edge as a pass rusher (86.9), while Jeremy Chinn impressed as a rookie safety, finishing with the third-most tackles as a defensive back (117).
A scheduling break allows Carolina to start the year playing just two 2020 playoff teams in the first 12 weeks, both of which will be home games against New Orleans in Week 2 and Washington in Week 11. A tough final month of the year includes a road game against Buffalo and two meetings against Tampa, but with the Panthers lacking much expectation in 2021, they could be one of the surprising Wild Card contenders, which would be a giant step based on their recent lack of success.
Atlanta Falcons
2020 Record/Season Result: 4-12 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 4-13 (2-4) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 4 vs WAS, Week 9 @ NO, Week 11 vs NE (TNF), Week 14 @ CAR, Week 18 vs NO
Atlanta comes off their third straight losing season, yet refused to concede to a rebuild this offseason, passing on a potential future franchise quarterback and instead drafting the top pass catching prospect Kyle Pitts in the draft in order to squeeze out what is left of Matt Ryan’s prime entering his age-36 season. With Pitts and breakout star Calvin Ridley as targets, the departure of Julio Jones likely won’t sting as much as the general public believes.
The offensive line is littered with good, not great talent. Jake Matthews is an always reliable blindside blocker and Chris Lindstrom finished as a top 10 guard last season according to PFF, but rest of the unit includes a rookie, a second year, who struggled as a rookie backup, and former first round pick Kaleb McGary, who has allowed 17 sacks by himself in the last two season.
On the defensive side, the Falcons have a pair of talented veterans in Deion Jones and Grady Jarrett, but the rest of the defense leaves much to be desired. After allowing the most passing yards in the NFL in 2020 (4,697), Atlanta did not do much to address the secondary, or pass rush for that matter. Prized free agent signing Dante Fowler Jr. was a disappointment, notching just four sacks and finishing 102nd among 108 qualifying pass rushers. As a secondary, the Falcons opted to continue running with Isaiah Oliver and 2020 first round pick A.J. Terrell, who both finished with a grade of 60 or lower in coverage.
It is safe to say the Falcons will be in their fair share of shootouts in 2021. With the rest of the roster’s overall lack of firepower, especially on the defensive side, it is farfetched to consider a potential return to the postseason for the Falcons, which could leave them in the cellar of the NFC South for at least another season.
NFC EAST
Washington Football Team
2020 Record/Season Result: 7-9 / NFC East Champs / Lost Wild Card vs TB 31-23
2021 Prediction: 9-8 (3-3) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 6 vs KC, Week 10 vs TB, Week 12 vs SEA (MNF), Week 16 @ DAL (SNF), Week 18 @ NYG
Despite public ridicule for the laughing stock that is the NFC East, Washington managed to do a fine job rebounding for a horrid 2019, to win the division in Ron Rivera’s first season as head coach.
The defense was outright dominant, holding opponents to just 20.6 points per game (4th), while finishing in the top eight in takeaways (7th), against the pass (2nd), and in sacks (6th). With a defensive line filled with first rounders, the unit could suddenly become the league’s best, led by Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young, who finished as a top five graded defensive end (87.1). On the back end, Washington brought in William Jackson III, giving them a quality cornerback tandem with veteran Kendall Fuller. Landon Collins will return after an injury-riddled 2020 to pair with Kamren Curl at safety, who impressed as a 7th round rookie last season with three interceptions.
On the offensive end they will be looking for improvement after finishing 25th in scoring (20.9) and 30th in total yards per game (337.9) largely due the the quarterback carousel that saw Washington having to go with their fourth starter in their lone playoff game, where they were a tough out against the eventual Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. Journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick will add to his own NFL record this season, starting for his ninth career NFL team and will look to provide some stability and hopefully more offensive juice than seen with a pair of young star receivers in Terry McLaurin and new addition Curtis Samuel, who are both coming off career years. Running back Antonio Gibson will look to build off his solid rookie season, where he finished with 11 rushing touchdowns (T-7th) in just 170 rushing attempts, the fewest of any back that scored at least 10 touchdowns.
Washington will face some tough competition in the early stages of the year, but will have the opportunity to finish the year strong with five straight divisional matchups to end the season. The offense in totality should improve, while the defense will be atop most statistical categories, but becoming the first NFC East team to repeat as divisional champions since 2004 will require more consistency, with a few quality wins against elite teams, as I do not foresee a losing record being enough to squeeze into the playoffs once again.
New York Giants
2020 Record/Season Result: 6-10 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 7-10 (4-2) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 5 @ DAL, Week 7 vs CAR, Week 15 vs DAL, Week 16 @ PHI, Week 18 vs WAS
The Giants enter 2021 headlined with a make-or-break year for third year quarterback Daniel Jones. The former Blue Devil has had questionable decision making in his first two seasons as quarterback, failing to protect the ball in the process, recording an NFL-high 39 turnovers in the previous two years combined.
The offensive line remains a huge question mark with 2020 top five pick Andrew Thomas failing to make a significant impact in year one, while the rest of the starters are filled with inexperience and below average play. The skill group should see an upgrade following the return of Saquon Barkley (ACL) and additions of veteran tight end Kyle Rudolph and elite vertical threat Kenny Golladay in hopes of improving New York’s 31st-ranked scoring offense (17.5 points per game). The defense exceeded expectations last season, finishing in the top 12 in points allowed (9th), yards allowed (12th), and takeaways (T-10th).
Defensive lineman Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence were two of the best interior lineman in the NFL with each finishing among the top 20 at their position. Linebacker Blake Martinez was stout once again in his first season with the Giants, finishing his fourth straight season with at least 140 combined tackles (no one else has more than two such seasons in that span). Free agent signee Adoree’ Jackson will look to return to form after an injury-riddled final season in Tennessee. He graded out a 73.0 or higher in each of his first three seasons and if he can return to that number, he will pair with James Bradberry to be one of the league’s best cornerback tandems this season. The back end will also include quality veterans Jabrill Peppers and Logan Ryan, Xavier McKinney should step into a larger role after a solid rookie year in limited time.
In order for the Giants to leapfrog the Cowboys and Washington atop the division, they will need to show out in those key matchups. In the last four seasons, they have controlled the series against Washington, winning six of eight, but losing seven of eight to the Cowboys in that same span. Should New York finish with a positive record within the division and improve on their atrocious 2-8 record against opponents outside of the division, a playoff appearance could surely be on the horizon.
Dallas Cowboys
2020 Record/Season Result: 6-10 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 9-8 (5-1) / #4 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 2 @ LAC, Week 13 @ NO (TNF), Week 15 @ NYG, Week 16 vs WAS (SNF), Week 17 vs ARI
Dallas will look to rebound after an injury-riddled 2020 to jump back into relevance. Quarterback Dak Prescott will return after a season-ending ankle injury that sidelined him for all but four and a half games last year, or so it seems. A shoulder injury limited his availability throughout training camp and preseason, so it will be interesting to see how soon he can get back into form.
He won’t be short on receiving talent, however. Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup form one of the best one of the top receiving trios in the NFL and are all capable exceeding 1,000 yards from scrimmage. While the offensive line ranks among the upper echelon that the league has to offer, it still remains painfully thin and will significantly dip as a unit should Zack Martin, La’el Collins, or Tyron Smith, who missed 36 games combined last year, miss time. Running back Ezekiel Elliott will need to have a bounce back season after career-lows in yards per carry (4.0), rushing yards per game (65.3), touchdowns (8), while also leading all running backs in fumbles (6).
The Cowboys hit hard on defense in the draft, with their first six picks favoring that side of the ball in hopes of improving a defense that allowed the most points in franchise history (29.6 points per game). Linebacker Micah Parsons has shown flashes of an immediate difference maker early on after an impressive camp and preseason. New Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn’s scheme should fit the Cowboys’ personnel much better than Mike Nolan’s in 2020, which will lead to an uptick in production for a defense that struggled in all facets last season. Keanu Neal, who has played under Dan Quinn his entire career, will transition into linebacker this year after being one of the NFL’s strongest box safeties when healthy in his young career. Dallas’ 31st ranked run defense could struggle yet again, especially with defensive tackles Trysten Hill and Neville Gallimore on the mend to begin the year. The secondary remains thin and without star power, but contains several young talents that, while inconsistent, have shown flashes of being a solid secondary.
Dallas will also get a scheduling break, with no matchups against 2020 playoff teams between weeks two and 10, while finishing the year with four of their last five being divisional games. On paper, Dallas should be one of the most exciting offenses in 2021, yet that is a phrase we have seen far too many times “on paper” does not translate to quality wins in recent years.
With Dak under center the last four seasons, Dallas has a putrid record of 7-17 against teams who finish the season with a winning record. Last season, fans and analysts galore hyped up Prescott’s numbers through his first four games, yet they fail to mention had it not been for a Falcon’s onside blunder, the Cowboys would have been 0-4 in those games. For Dallas to be successful in 2021, they will have to translate their numbers to the win column and have higher goals than winning the NFL’s worst division.
Philadelphia Eagles
2020 Record/Season Result: 4-11-1 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 5-12 (1-5) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 3 @ DAL (MNF), Week 8 @ DET, Week 11 vs NO, Week 15 vs WAS, Week 16 vs NYG
Philadelphia seemingly hit the reset button this offseason after parting ways with quarterback Carson Wentz in favor of second year pro Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles will field one of their worst overall rosters in years, which is not an ideal scenario for first year Head Coach Nick Sirianni. With Hurts as a dual threat, Philadelphia’s offense was much more productive, and now that they are boasting a healthy line after four of its five initial starters in 2020 missed at least half of the season. Now the issue won’t be injury, but seemingly age. With Jason Kelce, Brandon Brooks, and Lane Johnson all in their 30s, the unit could become fragile once again as the year goes on. Their skill group should be much improved as well with reigning Heisman winner DeVonta Smith now in fold. The tight end duo of Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz should continue to be an integral part in the offense, while Jalen Reagor will look to rebound after a disappointing rookie season.
On the defensive side, they still have a rather strong front four, as veterans Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, and Javon Hargrave will continue to wreak havoc on opposing lines. Despite a pair of Minnesota additions in linebacker Eric Wilson and safety Anthony Harris, the backend of the defense has worsened over the offseason. Even Darius Slay has regressed from the top five corner he was just a few seasons ago and while Steven Nelson is a formidable option to fill the hole on the opposite side that won’t be enough to keep opponents from lighting up the scoreboard.
The Eagles will face the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, however a brutal 11-week stretch starting in Week 3 will consist of seven road games and home games against the two most recent Super Bowl participants, as well as New Orleans and the LA Chargers, none of which are considered easy games. Philadelphia has enough offensive prowess to not be a doormat in 2021, but will likely need more than a few upsets in order to avoid double digit losses once again.
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks
2020 Record/Season Result: 12-4 / NFC West Champs / Lost Wild Card vs LAR 30-20
2021 Prediction: 11-6 (3-3) / #5 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 4 @ SF, Week 5 vs LAR (TNF), Week 10 @ GB, Week 15 @ LAR, Week 18 @ ARI
Seattle enters 2021 with high expectations after improving their season record each of the last four seasons. Quarterback Russell Wilson was reliable as ever in 2020, posting career-highs in completion percentage (68.8%), passing touchdowns (40), and QBR (73.5). Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf were sensational as a result, finishing with an NFL-best 2,357 yards as a wide receiver duo and 20 touchdowns.
The offensive line has improved immensely over the last two seasons and will don three starters that finished as top 20 pass blockers among their positions, including savvy veteran Duane Brown and trade acquisition Gabe Jackson, while Damien Lewis finished as a top five run blocking guard in 2020. Tight end Gerald Everett could also be in store for a breakout season after being signed away from the division rival Rams.
Defensively they are led by the NFL’s best linebacker Bobby Wagner, who has graded out as a top two linebacker in three of the last four seasons. Safety Jamal Adams gets flack for his lack of interceptions, but he is as versatile as you can get as a pass rusher, finishing with 9.5 sacks, leading the team and nearly tripling the next highest NFL safety. The defensive line ranks towards the bottom of the NFL from a personnel perspective, but Seattle still has the majority of their front seven returning from a defense that finished top five against the run (95.6 yards allowed per game). 2020 first round pick Jordyn Brooks must show significant improvement while attempting to replace long-time Seattle linebacker K.J. Wright, who finished as a top 10 linebacker last season. The secondary was atrocious against the pass, finishing 31st in yards allowed (285.0) and could be in store for a similar year after losing their best corner Shaquill Griffin in free agency.
Their season success will be predicated on divisional performance. All four teams are capable of reaching double digit wins and a losing record within the division will leave any of those teams on the outside looking in. Seattle might have the most holes between the four teams, but they do possess by far the best quarterback. Sometimes that is just enough to get by and as long as the Seahawks do not rely too much on Wilson, they should by right in the thick of things come postseason time.
Los Angeles Rams
2020 Record/Season Result: 10-6 / Lost Div. Round 32-18
2021 Prediction: 10-7 (4-2) / #6 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 3 vs TB, Week 5 @ SEA (TNF), Week 12 @ GB, Week 15 vs SEA, Week 18 vs SF
Los Angeles made perhaps the biggest swing-for-the-fences move of the 2021 offseason, trading multiple first round picks and quarterback Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford. From a talent perspective, it was a costly move that will significantly thin the roster over the next few seasons, but for the time being, it should put them in a position to contend for at least the next two seasons.
The offensive line is made up of four starters that finished with at least a grade of 70.0 or higher last season, allowing just 25 sacks, while also finishing as a top 10 rushing team. The Rams were dealt a huge early blow in training camp as Cam Akers, who was in store for a potential breakout year, ruptured his Achilles, ending his season before it even began. The subsequent trade for Sony Michel will help aid the loss, but it is safe to say the rushing attack will not be as strong as previously anticipated.
Despite the loss, Stafford should not be void of weapons in his first season in Los Angeles. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are both capable of securing 100 balls, while young receivers Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell will compete with veteran DeSean Jackson as vertical threats. The defense should be elite once again, led by three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, but will deal with significant losses on the back end with John Johnson III and Troy Hill departing in the offseason. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey still remains one of the best in the NFL in coverage, but the Rams will need Darious Williams to build on his breakout 2020 season, where he led the team in interceptions (4) and finished as the fourth-best graded corner in coverage (81.5).
The Rams will have the opportunity to get off to a hot start early in the season, and they will need to take advantage of that opportunity with a gruesome stretch after their Week 12 bye that includes three divisional games, as well as road games against Green Bay, Minnesota, and Baltimore. Los Angeles is as talented as any team in the NFC, but an extended playoff run will only happen if the Sean McVay/Matthew Stafford pairing instantly meshes. My gut feeling tells me the franchise may have to wait until 2022 to make a legitimate back to the Super Bowl.
Arizona Cardinals
2020 Record/Season Result: 8-8 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 9-8 (2-4) / Miss Playoffs
Biggest Matchups: Week 5 vs SF, Week 8 vs GB (TNF), Week 14 vs LAR (MNF), Week 17 @ DAL, Week 18 vs SEA
Arizona made significant strides in year two in the Kliff Kingsbury era, finishing .500 behind a breakout year from Kyler Murray, who rivals Lamar Jackson as the NFL’s most dynamic quarterback. DeAndre Hopkins had yet another spectacular season in his first year in Arizona following the Texans debacle, finishing third in receptions (115) and yards (1,407), despite a lack of another consistent threat in the passing game.
The Cardinals addressed that issue this offseason, bringing in seven-time Pro Bowler A.J. Green and 2021 draftee Rondale Moore, who was one of the fastest receivers in the class. Running back Kenyan Drake has departed, so Chase Edmonds will look to expand into a larger role after catching 53 passes as a backup last season. The offensive line will boast one of the best pass blocking units in the NFL, with all five starters finishing with at least a 70.0, including D.J. Humphries coming off a breakout season and offseason acquisitions Rodney Hudson and Kelvin Beachem.
On the defensive side, Arizona added five-time first-team All-Pro J.J. Watt to pair with the returning Chandler Jones, who missed 11 games last year (pectoral). Since 2012, the duo rank one and two in the NFL in sacks, and while both are now in their 30s, they are still capable of being massive disruptors in 2021. Drafting linebackers in the first round consecutive years, Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins will have free range to fly around and make plays in the middle of the field. They will be assisted by tackling sensation Budda Baker, who has eclipsed over 100 tackles from the safety position in each of the last three seasons. Arizona will have to deal with the departures of starting cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick, and could be in for a struggle after free agent acquisition Malcolm Butler abruptly retired as preseason ended. That leaves Byron Murphy and veteran Robert Alford, who has not played a down since 2018 to fill the void.
Arizona’s season outlook will honestly come down to coaching. In a division filled with three coaches with Super Bowl experience, the Cardinals will be at a disadvantage in most of those matchups. The division will likely be represented in the playoffs by three teams, and in order for Arizona to avoid being the odd man out, they will need to step up in those big time games in order to approach the 10-win territory and clinch a playoff spot.
San Francisco 49ers
2020 Record/Season Result: 6-10 / Missed Playoffs
2021 Prediction: 11-6 (3-3) / #2 Seed
Biggest Matchups: Week 3 vs GB (SNF), Week 10 vs LAR (MNF), Week 13 @ SEA, Week 16 @ TEN, Week 18 @ LAR
San Francisco’s Super Bowl hangover last season was as real as could be, but largely due to an unprecedented amount of injuries, with an NFL-high 31 players spending time on injured reserve last season. Jimmy Garoppolo’s unreliability from a healthy standpoint forced the 49ers’ hand, making an aggressive pre-draft move to eventually draft quarterback Trey Lance at the cost of three first round picks.
The quarterback battle has been intense throughout camp, foreshadowing a potential decision to opt for the rookie earlier than anticipated. Even if that move is made, San Francisco should be much improved this season, primarily because of the returns of several impact players. Wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk will combine with All-Pro tight end George Kittle to be one of the most lethal trios, regardless of who is throwing the ball. Raheem Mostert will return as well to pair with rookie Trey Sermon to make up a formidable run attack behind an offense line littered with talent. Trent Williams graded out as the NFL’ s best tackle (91.9) after missing the entire 2019 season with Washington due to a hold out, while Mike McGlinchey finished with the second-best grade as a run blocker (91.3) behind only Williams.
The defensive line that was dominant in 2019 suffered a massive regression, largely due to Nick Bosa and Dee Ford being lost for the season before we could get to Week 3, as well as an inability to replace defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who was traded away in the 2020 draft. With improvement from Javon Kinlaw, the unit should return to being one of the best in football this year. Fred Warner was the lone bright spot in 2020, breaking out and finishing as the highest graded linebacker (88.6), earning All-Pro honors as a result. The secondary will need to replace the departing Richard Sherman, but still possess quality starters in the secondary should they stay healthy.
Aside from the division, San Francisco has a relatively easy schedule and could find themselves starting the season strong. One of the main hiccups will be the transition between quarterbacks and when that will be executed, but the earlier, the better. The 49ers have a roster with the fewest question marks compared to their divisional foes, and if the quarterback situation is figured out, the team could be in store for big things in 2021.
This Just In 