Teams without first round picks:

• Los Angeles Rams (Matthew Stafford trade)
• Cleveland Browns (Deshaun Watson trade)
• Denver Broncos (Russell Wilson trade)
• Miami Dolphins (Lost original for tampering; 49ers pick for Bradley Chubb trade)
• San Francisco 49ers (Trey Lance trade)

*MT represents a mock trade*

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1. Carolina Panthers (from CHI) – QB Bryce Young

While there have been some flirtations with Carolina going with another quarterback here, Young was always the strong favorite to be the pick. His poise was unmatched during his two seasons as a starter at Alabama, overcoming their worst skill group in over 15 years to win the 2021 Heisman and a National Championship appearance that same season. His size is the lone concern, with his small frame (5’10, 194 lbs) being unprecedented, however his intangibles are enough to take a chance on him. Young should be able to start right away and while he may not make the most immediate statistical impact, the NFC South is wide open enough to where Carolina could contend for a division title immediately following Tom Brady’s retirement.

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2. Houston Texans – EDGE Tyree Wilson

This is where the plot twist begins. The Texans were penciled in for months to take a quarterback with their first pick, however it seems as though they will be pivoting in another direction with Bryce Young off the board. I personally don’t view that as a bad decision, however going Wilson over Anderson Jr., who is regarded as the top edge in this class, will be the bigger debate for years to come. The former Aggie and Red Raider has risen up draft boards throughout the offseason similarly to 2022 number one pick Travon Walker last year and Houston is reportedly smitten with his potential. Had he been able to participate during the NFL Combine, there is a good chance his numbers would have been impressive enough to overtake Anderson Jr. as the top-rated edge rusher. With two Top 12 picks and other ammunition early in this draft (33rd, 65th, 73rd), Houston could do some maneuvering to make a move for a signal caller should one fall. It is clear, however, after the offseason moves that were made Head Coach DeMeco Ryans wants to overhaul a defensive side of the ball that has been picked apart at historic rates in recent years. 

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3. Tennessee Titans (MT w/ ARI) – QB CJ Stroud

TRADE – Stroud’s pre-draft journey has been one of the most bewildering in recent memory. Statistically, there is no refuting how phenomenal he was the last two seasons, especially in his final game as a Buckeye, where he tore apart the now two-time reigning National Champion Georgia Bulldog defense. Initially when the Panthers traded up, multiple sportsbooks shifted him to the favorite, however after recent reports of him bombing the recently popular S2 cognitive test, there is potential he may not even be the second quarterback off the board. Tennessee makes sure that does not happen by making the draft move of the night to come get their quarterback of the future. Ryan Tannehill in the final year of his deal at the age of 35 is not for long with the franchise and they appear to be moving off of the notion that Malik Willis is the answer. Trading up eight spots will not come cheap, but Stroud falling past Houston will be the best thing for Arizona and their phones will blow up as a result. Should the Titans make this move, they will need to be aggressive revamping their entire offense after losing multiple starters along the offensive line, as well as a potential soon-to-be departure of Derrick Henry. 

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4. Indianapolis Colts – QB Will Levis

Levis has been a player difficult to place among mock drafts around the country, however it appears as though he is Indianapolis’ preference at this spot. The Colts have dealt with a quarterback carousel over the last three years of aging veteran quarterbacks since Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement and it is time they invest in the future at the position. Levis did not wow anyone statistically throughout his college career, and his inability to beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State is something I believe is being unjustly glossed over, but he will have a ton of tools to succeed out of the gate with Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., and former Eagles OC Shane Steichen as the newly touted head coach. 

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5. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) – QB Anthony Richardson

Despite Geno Smith, the 2022 comeback player of the year, being re-signed this offseason, the Seahawks take a chance on the most polarizing quarterback prospect in the class. Richardson’s college tenure was filled with several missed layups, however his “Wow” plays have enamored scouts around the league, and he has drawn comparisons to Cam Newton with his physical tools and arm. He will likely be a clipboard holder for at least the 2023 season, especially if Smith continues to perform well after his breakout season, but with Seattle’s budding roster Richardson can immediately step in leading a playoff team whenever his time comes, which is all you can ask for as a young quarterback.

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6. Detroit Lions (from LAR) – EDGE Will Anderson Jr.

Detroit is in an advantageous position should there be a run of quarterbacks in the Top 5 with the ability to add a quality defensive player to their roster. Anderson Jr. should not be available here, however if Arizona finds a trade partner, the Lions will likely have the luxury of him or Tyree Wilson falling into their laps. Anderson’s stats may have taken a dip in 2022, however he became the first ever two-time SEC Defensive Player of the Year and first since 1996 to win back-to-back Bronco Nagurski awards as the nation’s best defensive player. He will be an excellent locker room presence to pair with Aiden Hutchinson to anchor a young defense. 

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7. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Christian Gonzalez 

The Raiders’ secondary has been in shambles over the last few seasons and need an immediate upgrade to help slow down Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert within the division. Gonzalez is an uber athletic and lengthy corner with three years of starting experience at Colorado and most recently Oregon. He thrives in both man and zone coverage and would provide a boost to a team whose 12 interceptions over the last two seasons is seven fewer than the next worst team in that span. 

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8. Atlanta Falcons – CB Devon Witherspoon

The Falcons need to upgrade their pass rush with just 38 sacks since the beginning of 2021 (next worst team is at 64), but Witherspoon might be too good to pass up here. He might not have the size that Gonzalez has, but no cornerback in college football had a better year in man coverage in 2022. Witherspoon did not allow a touchdown and finished with a sensational opponent 25.3 passer rating when targeted, good for a 92.5 PFF grade in coverage, which led the nation. Bringing him in to complement AJ Terrell and former Bengal Jessie Bates will give the Falcons the pieces to form one of the best secondaries in the NFL sooner rather than later, especially if Jeff Okudah can show some of the potential that had him picked third overall just three years ago.

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9. Chicago Bears (from CAR) – DT Jalen Carter

After the haul Chicago landed from Carolina last month, they would feel ecstatic if Carter, who is regarded by multiple scouts as the top prospect in this class, were able to fall to them. After a tumultuous offseason following his involvement in the tragedy that occurred following Georgia’s second National Championship in January, as well as his poor Pro Day performance, Carter may fall a little further than expected. That said, there is no chance the Bears pass on the guy that was regarded as the best defensive lineman on their 2021 championship team as a sophomore. There will be questions about his work ethic, however Chicago has several holes in their roster, and they should be attacking the “best player available” route with the majority of their early picks. 

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10. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO) – EDGE Nolan Smith

A Super Bowl runner up with a Top 10 pick is not a typical occurrence, which makes it difficult to pencil in the direction they will go with another first round pick at #30. That said, Philadelphia in recent years has always prided themselves on getting to the quarterback and with Brendan Graham and Fletcher Cox perhaps entering their swan song season, adding depth at edge will be likely in this draft. A trade up, trade down, or even spending this pick on a luxury like Bijan Robinson is all in the cards here, but I see Philadelphia standing pat and taking the best available edge rusher. Smith stole the show at the NFL combine, which skyrocketed him up draft boards into being a potential Top 10 pick. He didn’t have the best production, but former teammate Travon Walker showed last year that you can still be a high draft selection, despite zero sacks. Philadelphia will be a team to keep an eye on Thursday night, as no team has done more maneuvering in recent drafts. General Manager Howie Roseman is already making calls exploring the possibility of trading up.

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11. Arizona Cardinals (MT w/ TEN) – OT Paris Johnson Jr

After Arizona trades down, they could still go with a pass rusher, which is a significant need, but I think this range will bring in the discussion to pick one of the top offensive line prospects. He started in 2021 at right guard, but really came into his own when anchoring the left side in 2022, playing over 800 snaps and allowed just two sacks last year. The connection between the Cardinals and Johnson has gained steam in recent days, so expect them to bring this addition into fruition if they moved back to #11. He would be a plug and play starter that would assist in keeping Kyler Murray upright once he returns after three straight seasons of dealing with injuries in the second half of the year.

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12. Houston Texans (from CLE) – WR Jaxon Smith-Nijgba

Houston shocked the league at two and now turn to improve their offense that is sorely lacking. Smith-Njigba is coming off a nagging hamstring injury that limited him the entire 2022 season, however many turn to 2021 where he was regarded as the top wide receiver on the team that included first round picks Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, who are both coming off of 1,000-yard rookie seasons. JSN is a slot specialist that does not have breakaway speed, but flashes with crisp route running and soft hands that will allow him to carve up defenses in the next level. In the right situation, he will be able to rival the league’s best in receptions very early in his career, but it will take the right quarterback to do so. The Texans in this mock still have yet to figure that part out, but should they draft Stroud at #2, it will be way too enticing to not pair them up similarly to Cincinnati with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Even without him, I would still go this direction with an uninspiring wide receiver corps at the helm.

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13. Green Bay Packers (from NYJ) – TE Dalton Kincaid

The Aaron Rodgers dilemma was finally resolved leading up to the draft, which allowed Green Bay to bump up a few spots. Love should be ready to take over the reins, but they still need to add another weapon to allow him to maximize his abilities. Kincaid has risen up draft boards as the most talented receiving tight end at a position that is regarded as the strongest in this class. He and Michael Mayer both make sense here, but the former gets a slight bump for what he was able to do as a downfield threat. Giving Love a strong running back duo, a second-year deep threat, and a reliable target over the middle will allow him to maximize his abilities as a starter.

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14. Pittsburgh Steelers (MT w/ NE) – OL Peter Skoronski

TRADE – One thing certain about Pittsburgh and their two picks in the top 32 is the need to address the offensive line and secondary. With a couple of linemen falling, Pittsburgh moves up a few spots to take the top prospect in the class. Skoronski is a three-year starter with well-renowned fundamentals and great hands, finishing as PFF’s top pass blocker in 2022 (93.0). While he started at left tackle throughout his tenure at Northwestern, most project him to slide into guard at the next level. Either way, he will be a significant upgrade on the left side of the ball. Pittsburgh actually ranked 7th in pass blocking in 2022, they have been putrid making holes for Najee Harris over the last two seasons.

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15. New York Jets (from GB) – OT Broderick Jones

The Jets have built one of the best young offensive lines over the last few drafts, however they were unable to get much of a return in production in 2022 due to former first round picks Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker missing the entire and majority of the year respectively. With Aaron Rodgers coming into town, they should see improvement from those returns, but still need to address the other offensive tackle spot. Broderick Jones is an absolute mauler as a tackle prospect, known for his abilities to finish blocks. He lacks a ton of experience compared to his draft classmates with just 19 starts, but he has perhaps the highest upside at his position. If the Jets line can stay healthy, they will anchor one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL in 2023.

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16. Washington Commanders – CB Joey Porter Jr.

The Commanders are widely thought to be adding to their secondary early in the draft and in this scenario, they take a chance on Porter Jr., whose 81-inch wingspan will give him a ton of advantages in man coverage. Like fellow classmate Devon Witherspoon, he did not allow a touchdown in 2022 and was targeted just 30 times throughout the year. CeeDee Lamb and the duo of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith carved up Washington in both of their respective matchups last season and Porter Jr would be an ideal prospect to match up with their division’s stud wide receivers.

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17. New England Patriots (MT w/ PIT) – WR Quentin Johnston

Johnston broke out on the scene during TCU’s Cinderella National Title run and proved himself to be one of the top wideouts of this class. While a few other prospects might garner more buzz, he might be drafted higher due to being the lone big-bodied prospect among the group. Johnston specialized in making down the field plays but is also explosive enough to outrun defensive backs on short and intermediate routes. The Patriots may have added JuJu Smith-Schuster this offseason, but the offense still lacks the juice of a potential home run hitter. New England has gone against the grain in the early portion of recent drafts, but this is the biggest area of need, and they have to address it in order to maximize Mac Jones’ abilities.

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18. Detroit Lions – DT Calijah Kancey

It is uncanny with the number of similarities Kancey possesses with fellow Panther alum Aaron Donald, who like the three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year, plays with an incredible motor for an undersized interior defensive lineman. The 2022 ACC Defensive Player of the Year is being considered a dark horse for a top 20 pick for good reason and Detroit adding another All-American to their defensive front would be a dream scenario for the Lions. Obviously, they would go another direction if they did take a shot on Jalen Carter with their first pick, but I would not expect Kancey to fall far past this selection if that were to be the case.

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19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB Bijan Robinson

Considered a consensus Top 5 prospect in this draft class, Robinson is one of the most difficult to place due to the position in which he plays. The depth at running back in this class, along with the volatility of the position could cause him to drop further than he deserves, but placing him with the Buccaneers, who are also one of the biggest unknowns does make some sense. They were one of two teams to meet with him on a pre-draft visit and do have a need after the departure of Leonard Fournette. Baker Mayfield played his best ball when he had elite weapons in Cleveland and there is no question pairing the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley with the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin would allow him to regain his status of an NFL starter in the most important season of his career. Robinson might not even be available this late, but there is just not a ton of needs at running back after Philadelphia at #10. 

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20. Seattle Seahawks – EDGE Lukas Van Ness

Were it not for a bold move to take Richardson with their fifth pick, it is very likely Seattle would target Will Anderson Jr or Tyree Wilson with their first pick. Van Ness is a versatile lineman that has experience playing at both edge and five-technique without a ton of tread on his tires due to being implemented as a rotational piece alongside Iowa’s defensive front over the last two seasons. His draft stock has fluctuated in the 8-20 range since the NFL Combine and I would have a hard time believing Seattle would pass on him here if they were to stay at this pick.

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21. Los Angeles Chargers – WR Jordan Addison

The 2021 Fred Biletnikoff winner followed up his strong campaign at Pittsburgh with a somewhat underwhelming year at USC with Heisman winner Caleb Williams. Even after a so-so combine performance, he still projects fairly high as a solid number two option in a pass-heavy scheme due to his crisp route running. Coming into the offseason, Keenan Allen was thought to be a primary trade/cut candidate, however even with him still on the roster, it is important to add depth to the position with Allen and Mike Williams’ lengthy injury history. A big tie that could land Addison in Los Angeles is wide receivers coach Chris Beatty, who recruited him to Maryland and soon after Pittsburgh before leaving for the Chargers. It does seem like a match made in Heaven for the wideout, who will enjoy a tenure with one of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks in Justin Herbert.

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22. Baltimore Ravens – CB Deonte Banks

The Ravens have yet to address the departures of both Kyle Fuller and Marcus Peters and could look to keep Banks in the state of Maryland by making him their new starting outside corner. Banks has risen into first round consideration after a stellar combine and has the physical tools that fits the mold of a Baltimore defensive player. The Ravens had moments last year where they were playing with multiple practice squad players in the secondary due to a plethora of injuries and will need to bring some youth to the position. While many will consider wide receiver here, Baltimore will likely address this with another veteran or in the later rounds of the draft. Strengthening their biggest weakness to a defense that is already arguably a Top 5 unit seems to be the likely way to go.

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23. Kansas City Chiefs (MT w/ MIN) – WR Zay Flowers

TRADE- The reigning Super Bowl champs refuse to stand pat and trade up to add a potent offensive weapon. Flowers has thrived with the ball in space and there is no better landing spot for him than the two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes and all-time great play designer Andy Reid. While I would expect KaDarius Toney to take a leap in production after being a midseason addition, the departures of Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster leaves a void that Kansas City has yet to address. With 10 draft picks, I foresee the Chiefs being aggressive to move in front of a few wide receiver-needy teams. Flowers has been connected with Kansas City throughout the draft process and the move makes too much sense for both sides.

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24. Jacksonville Jaguars – S Brian Branch

The Jaguars have several needs on the defensive side of the ball and in a relatively weak safety class, they snag the top prospect available. Branch is a Swiss army knife of sorts, with the ability to line up all over the field, including in the box. He excelled as a run stopper, leading all defensive backs in the country in tackles for a loss in 2022, en route to earning All-American honors. He could project to fill a Budda Baker-like role for Jacksonville, providing stability in a secondary that has sorely been lacking since the departure of Jalen Ramsey in 2019. Offensive tackle is also an area to address, especially after the recent suspension of Cam Robinson, who is entering the final year of his deal as well, which could in turn force Jacksonville to be more aggressive than they have been in recent years.

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25. New York Giants – CB Emmanuel Forbes

Forbes enters the draft as the most productive ball hawk among all defensive backs, with 14 interceptions across 35 games at Mississippi State. Despite his slender frame, Forbes saved his best season for last, allowing a 44.7 passer rating and finished third in the nation with six interceptions. Aside from Adoree Jackson, the Giants are sorely lacking at corner and have three of the league’s best receiving corps to deal with within the division. Wide receiver is also in need of an upgrade, but my guess is they will need to move up in order to grab one of the few first round prospects at that position.

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26. Dallas Cowboys – TE Michael Mayer

Let’s get this out of the way. Bijan Robinson will not be available at 26 and the Cowboys will not be trading up for a running back, even as good as him. This isn’t the sexiest pick, but if Jason Witten 2.0 is on the board here, you do not pass him up. Mayer is coming off a year as the number one graded tight end in the nation according to PFF (92.5), finishing among the Top 5 in both receiving and run blocking. He also led his position in contested catches (17) and tied for the lead in deep receptions (8). His athleticism does not jump off the screen, however he has not missed a start in three years and does not present the injury concerns that fellow tight end Dalton Kincaid has had. Mayer is an immediate plug and play starter that would in short time become a big upgrade over the departing Dalton Schultz with the ability to be a long-term starter for years to come. 

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27. Buffalo Bills – OT Darnell Wright

Wright experiences a little bit of a slide but finds himself falling into an ideal situation with a contender in Buffalo. The Bills have a solid left tackle in Dion Dawkins, however the rest of their line leaves much to be desired, especially on the right side where Spencer Brown has graded as a below average pass blocker in each of the past two seasons in addition to a pair of injuries that has cost him seven games. Wright is a massive prospect that has experience starting at both tackle spots, most recently on the right side in 2022 where he did not allow one sack. The right side of the line is likely the biggest area of need, however I would not be surprised if Buffalo makes a splash to add another skill player to their repertoire.

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28. Cincinnati Bengals – OG O’Cyrus Torrence

I strongly considered a running back here with Samaje Perine departing and Joe Mixon’s status being up in the air with his impending legal situation, but instead opted to add one of the best interior linemen. Torrence made the most in his lone season at Florida following a transfer from the Ragin’ Cajuns, becoming a consensus All-American and grading out as the nation’s top offensive guard (88.0) according to PFF. The Bengals made a splash in free agency adding Orlando Brown Jr. at left tackle but should continue strengthening a unit that was very inconsistent throughout the year. Torrence would instantly be a monster in the interior that could suddenly find themselves as a Top 10 offensive line before the end of next year, with or without the potential departure of Jonah Williams, who requested a trade earlier this offseason.

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29. New Orleans Saints (from DEN via MIA and SF) – EDGE Myles Murphy

Murphy as a talent should not be on the board this late in the first round, but New Orleans would be wise to bring him in. Cameron Jordan is entering his age-34 season and with former first round pick Marcus Davenport parting ways this offseason, that leaves the Saints thin up front. Murphy is a pass rushing prospect that put together three quality years at Clemson but failed to provide that ‘Wow’ factor that was expected as a former Top 10 recruit. He is, however, highly regarded by former teammates and coaches, and would be a strong addition to a team that has had a solid locker room culture even since the retirement of Drew Brees. 

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30. Philadelphia Eagles – RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Here is where I see the Eagles making that splash at running back that many believe they will do at #10. In his lone season with the Crimson Tide, Gibbs showed off his versatility as a modern-day NFL running back. He is Alvin Kamara with more top end speed, which is likely why several people have claimed he could be more touted than Bijan Robinson, largely due to his pass catching ability and impact he could make on special teams. He doesn’t need 20 touches in order to leave his mark on the game, which makes Gibbs the perfect replacement for Miles Sanders as a complement to Jalen Hurts. 

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31. Minnesota Vikings (MT w/ KC) – QB Hendon Hooker

Whether or not Minnesota trades down to add to the five picks they possess in this draft, the amount of work they put into this quarterback class shows they will not be afraid to select Kirk Cousins’ future replacement if they were to fall to them. No quarterback helped their draft status more than Hooker did during the 2022 season, after he led the Volunteers to not only the upset of Alabama, but the school’s first number one ranking since 1998. All that, however, came to a crashing halt following his ACL injury in November. Were it not for that injury, I don’t think there is any question he would be a Top 10 pick in this draft, despite being 25 years of age already. There does seem to be optimism that Hooker will be fully cleared by the start of the NFL season, though there will be no need to rush back within Kirk Cousins at the helm for one more season. 

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